> it doesn't matter because we don't get any additional information about whether our original choice was correct
That's the missing assumption. I would say assuming that people are perfectly random falls into the "standardized test" category.
> you won't get information, and you should still always switch and win 2/3 of the time.
You always get some information, the set of possible results becomes narrower, so saying the probabilities don't change is not sufficient. Not a good idea to discuss the problem in informal language though.
That's the missing assumption. I would say assuming that people are perfectly random falls into the "standardized test" category.
> you won't get information, and you should still always switch and win 2/3 of the time.
You always get some information, the set of possible results becomes narrower, so saying the probabilities don't change is not sufficient. Not a good idea to discuss the problem in informal language though.