1) Companies will develop many specialized LLMs linked via a router-like app that determines the best LLM to perform your request. This will yield better results without requiring an AGI. It might even be good enough to replace a specialized information tech job.
2) The cost of a line of code will continue to drop. A Moore's like law is coming/here for code.
3) Trade jobs will start to become what code jobs were in the 00's -- very well paid.
Fair warning, coders think about learning a trade like plumbing, electrician, so on...
Title: "RouteLLM: Learning to Route LLMs with Preference Data"
Abstract:
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive capabilities across a wide range of tasks, yet the choice of which model to use often involves a trade-off between performance and cost. More powerful models, though effective, come with higher expenses, while less capable models are more cost-effective. To address this dilemma, we propose several efficient router models that dynamically select between a stronger and a weaker LLM during inference, aiming to optimize the balance between cost and response quality. We develop a training framework for these routers leveraging human preference data and data augmentation techniques to enhance performance. Our evaluation on widely-recognized benchmarks shows that our approach significantly reduces costs—by over 2 times in certain cases—without compromising the quality of responses. Interestingly, our router models also demonstrate significant transfer learning capabilities, maintaining their performance even when the strong and weak models are changed at test time. This highlights the potential of these routers to provide a cost-effective yet high-performance solution for deploying LLMs.
When all knowledge workers and creatives in the US are out of jobs in 2 years because of AI, those trade jobs aren't going to pay well because no one's going to have any money to pay for any work. No new houses being built, no expensive kitchen remodels, etc.
There's more to it than coders losing their jobs. For the last 40+ years, kids have been encouraged to go to college over trade schools. We now have a shortage of professional tradespeople. Desk jobs are easy to outsource and they are now vulnerable to AI. Even if they, plumbers and such, are not the best-paid jobs they will continue to be needed in our society as long as we have people.
I’ve been trying to get a few trades to my house and it’s a nightmare. Nobody wants to turn up or quote, and when they do they just throw out a silly high figure. It has to already be a better option for someone who is aiming for a reasonably good salary.
That transcript for a podcast or whatever states there is demand, not a signal that there is a trend toward significantly higher wages or that employment is growing.
There are very different business constraints for hiring software developers vs all skilled tradespeople.
Don't worry, if you believe in your AI magic so much just have it to teach you the concepts of the trade. The snark is because I think the AI hype is insanity and have lost respect for anyone who "claims" to actually use it. I try every. single. time. To replicate anyone's claimed success, and EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. I see the AI being obviously worse than a Google search.
2) The cost of a line of code will continue to drop. A Moore's like law is coming/here for code.
3) Trade jobs will start to become what code jobs were in the 00's -- very well paid.
Fair warning, coders think about learning a trade like plumbing, electrician, so on...