I think the key is ensuring that “we” get to choose what society looks like in the AGI era. In the world today, even marginalized people have power. Look what happened to Assad. Look at the US - whether you believe they made the right decision or not, working class people were key to Trump’s victory, who may well institute tariffs as a way to protect working class jobs by insulating American industry from global competition. I’m not saying that will be successful, I’m saying that working class people got mad and a political change resulted.
Similarly I don’t see a world where AGI takes all the jobs and people do not respond by getting pissed off. My fear is that AGI is coupled with oppressive power structures to foreclose the possibility of a revolt. Opaque bureaucracy, total surveillance, fascist or authoritarian leaders, AI-controlled critical infrastructure, diminished and bankrupted free press, AI fake news, toxic social media…it could add up to a very dystopian outcome.
Democracies could thrive in the AGI era but we need to take many more steps to ensure we protect our societies and keep the interests of citizens paramount. One example is suggested by Harari in his most recent book, namely to ban AI bots from social media on the grounds that we should not permit AI agents to pretend to be citizens in the discussions of the public square.
> I think the key is ensuring that “we” get to choose what society looks like in the AGI era. In the world today, even marginalized people have power.
That's a bold assumption. Much of that assumption is predicated on the ability for the masses to revolt.
> Look what happened to Assad.
Wait for what will come after. Look at all the Arab Spring revolutions, and you see in their wake a number of dictatorships.
Anyhow, I'm not saying this is 100% how it's going to play out, but I definitely wouldn't bet against it. Holding all the keys and having all the resources are the wealthy, and the wealthy have no motivation to voluntarily just give up their position in society. And when humans have no value to leverage/be extracted in order to generate more wealth, their will be no way for the vast majority of people to become wealthy. Raw materials will still be valuable however, but, of course, these are controlled by the wealthy. And if those in power wish to gatekeep access to AGI, they can leverage their wealth and resources to automate a military and thus protect the raw materials that keep them in power.
Similarly I don’t see a world where AGI takes all the jobs and people do not respond by getting pissed off. My fear is that AGI is coupled with oppressive power structures to foreclose the possibility of a revolt. Opaque bureaucracy, total surveillance, fascist or authoritarian leaders, AI-controlled critical infrastructure, diminished and bankrupted free press, AI fake news, toxic social media…it could add up to a very dystopian outcome.
Democracies could thrive in the AGI era but we need to take many more steps to ensure we protect our societies and keep the interests of citizens paramount. One example is suggested by Harari in his most recent book, namely to ban AI bots from social media on the grounds that we should not permit AI agents to pretend to be citizens in the discussions of the public square.