Yes. People are not stupid. It's one thing to have a phone in your purse. It's another to have something on your head and eyes, like how is anyone going to agree to that? Sure if it was very cheap you'd find some interested folks.
I remember being called outdated, a contrarian and 'in the way of progress' on this site when I expressed doubt that the Vision Pro would be 'the next iPhone', as people on this site put it. I was told that our way of working would change within the year and that everybody would be scrambling to emulate Apple.
I don't mind enthusiasm and excitement, but for others to directly make such bold claims then put others down was a disappointing experience for me here.
Could it be the top comments even though most voted are also most commented and more divisive and controversial? And the most boring comments are somewhere at the back? Hence big amount of failed predictions at the top.
I was eeading an article on this a while ago tgat i sadly cant find but you should expect these threads to be wildly incorrect because people can read everyone elses predictiobs and be swayed by them. The wisdom of the crowd only appears to work when nobody gets to see otger results first and then the median position is wgat is usually most accurate.
I think I recently (few days ago, that is in the last few days of 2024) saw a Vsauce video/short about this regarding a trial trying to use the wisdom of the crowd to get an accurate number for the amount of jelly beans in a large jar. The trial was similarly skewed by "open" predictions, concretely people being allowed to give their predictions while in the presence of their group (friends/family/etc). Unfortunately I cannot seem to find it, but your comment reminded me of that.
