Thank you for this link! Interesting read. Looking into predictions regarding climate change is interesting. Especially on page 46 (pdf page 66), the section titled "Winners and Losers in a Post-Petroleum World".
> We believe the most likely occurrence by 2025 is a technological breakthrough that will provide an alternative to oil and natural gas, but implementation will lag because of the necessary infrastructure costs and need for longer replacement time. However, whether the breakthrough occurs within the 2025 time frame or later, the geopolitical implications of a shift away from oil and natural gas will be immense.
I wonder if solar's dirt-cheap cost would be considered a "breakthrough". Interesting breakdown on how major OPEC countries will be affected by such a "breakthrough". Great read!
Edit: This prediction is wild also:
(Page 62, pdf page 83)
> A Non-nuclear Korea?
> We see a unified Korea as likely by 2025—if
not as a unitary state, then in some form of
North-South confederation. While diplomacy
working to end North Korea’s nuclear
weapons program continues, the final
disposition of the North’s nuclear
infrastructure and capabilities at the time of
reunification remain uncertain. A new,
reunified Korea struggling with the large
financial burden of reconstruction will,
however, be more likely to find international
acceptance and economic assistance by
ensuring the denuclearization of the
Peninsula, perhaps in a manner similar to
what occurred in Ukraine post-1991. A
loosely confederated Korea might complicate
denuclearization efforts. Other strategic
consequences are likely to flow from Korean
unification, including prospects for new levels
of major power cooperation to manage new
and enduring challenges, such as
denuclearization, demilitarization, refugee
flows, and financing reconstruction.
Edit 2:
(Page 75, pdf page 95)
> Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic
> Experts consider highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains, such as H5N1,
to be likely candidates for such a transformation, but other pathogens—such as the SARS
coronavirus or other influenza strains—also have this potential.
...
> If a pandemic disease emerges, it probably will first occur in an area marked by high population
density and close association between humans and animals, such as many areas of China and
Southeast Asia, where human populations live in close proximity to livestock. Unregulated
animal husbandry practices could allow a zoonotic disease such as H5N1 to circulate in livestock
populations—increasing the opportunity for mutation into a strain with pandemic potential. To
propagate effectively, a disease would have to be transmitted to areas of higher population
density
> Outside the US, critical infrastructure degradation
and economic loss on a global scale would result as approximately a third of the worldwide
population became ill and hundreds of millions died.
At least we didn't get hundreds of millions dead. That's pretty grim.
> We believe the most likely occurrence by 2025 is a technological breakthrough that will provide an alternative to oil and natural gas, but implementation will lag because of the necessary infrastructure costs and need for longer replacement time. However, whether the breakthrough occurs within the 2025 time frame or later, the geopolitical implications of a shift away from oil and natural gas will be immense.
I wonder if solar's dirt-cheap cost would be considered a "breakthrough". Interesting breakdown on how major OPEC countries will be affected by such a "breakthrough". Great read!
Edit: This prediction is wild also:
(Page 62, pdf page 83)
> A Non-nuclear Korea?
> We see a unified Korea as likely by 2025—if not as a unitary state, then in some form of North-South confederation. While diplomacy working to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program continues, the final disposition of the North’s nuclear infrastructure and capabilities at the time of reunification remain uncertain. A new, reunified Korea struggling with the large financial burden of reconstruction will, however, be more likely to find international acceptance and economic assistance by ensuring the denuclearization of the Peninsula, perhaps in a manner similar to what occurred in Ukraine post-1991. A loosely confederated Korea might complicate denuclearization efforts. Other strategic consequences are likely to flow from Korean unification, including prospects for new levels of major power cooperation to manage new and enduring challenges, such as denuclearization, demilitarization, refugee flows, and financing reconstruction.
Edit 2:
(Page 75, pdf page 95)
> Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic
> Experts consider highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains, such as H5N1, to be likely candidates for such a transformation, but other pathogens—such as the SARS coronavirus or other influenza strains—also have this potential.
...
> If a pandemic disease emerges, it probably will first occur in an area marked by high population density and close association between humans and animals, such as many areas of China and Southeast Asia, where human populations live in close proximity to livestock. Unregulated animal husbandry practices could allow a zoonotic disease such as H5N1 to circulate in livestock populations—increasing the opportunity for mutation into a strain with pandemic potential. To propagate effectively, a disease would have to be transmitted to areas of higher population density
> Outside the US, critical infrastructure degradation and economic loss on a global scale would result as approximately a third of the worldwide population became ill and hundreds of millions died.
At least we didn't get hundreds of millions dead. That's pretty grim.