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fnqi8ckfek
4 months ago
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Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
How do those confidence levels work? It looks to me you're just assigning probabilities to outcomes.
yunwal
4 months ago
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I think it's roughly: "I would bet 9$ to your $1 that this happens", although some of these are vague enough that you couldn't objectively determine whether the bet materialized.
fnqi8ckfek
4 months ago
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So they aren't confidence levels. They're odds, but he's trying to sound sophisticated.
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