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say your figure is correct. now also tally the subsidies on all of bill of materials as well as favorable loan terms.



I think you're saying that if Ford buys cheap and good batteries from CATL that's fair, but if BYD does that's a hidden subsidy. Right?


You are assuming that Ford and BYD pays same prices, but are you sure about that?


I consider it very likely.

I shared office with an enterprise salesman for a year. We talked over lunch. Among the things he said: If you want to sell to someone in the long run, then be honest with them. Don't give their competitors better prices and lie about it. It's okay to tell someone that their competitors get better pricing because of volume or for other understandable reasons, but lying is not okay, because people will find out eventually and then your long-term relationship goes sour.

CATL clearly wants to be a really big battery vendor and sell to lots of battery purchasers. I consider it very likely that they treat Ford well.


Not sure if that's the best way to describe China's business model/practice. WRT, EV batteries in particular[1]:

  ... China requires auto makers to use batteries from one of its approved suppliers if they want to be cleared to mass-produce electric cars and plug-in hybrids and to qualify for subsidies. These suppliers are all Chinese, so such global leaders as South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd and Japan’s Panasonic Corp. are excluded.

  ... Foreign batteries aren’t officially banned in China, but auto executives say that since 2016 they have been warned by government officials that they must use Chinese batteries in their China-built cars, or face repercussions.  That has forced them to spend millions of dollars to redesign cars to work with inferior Chinese batteries, they say.

  ... “We want to comply, and we have to comply,” said one executive with a foreign car maker. “There’s no other option.”
1. Power Play: How China-Owned Volvo Avoids Beijing’s Battery Rules Car maker is allowed to use high-end foreign technology, while rivals are squeezed into buying local, Trefor Moss, May 17, 2018, the Wall Street Journal

I don't know any specifics of Ford and CATL, but it was always the Chinese gov't driving their growth either by protectionism or undercutting foreign competitors with subsidies which is why Chinese EVs are being pushed back by the trade regulators in EU/US/Turkiye/France/etc..

I have no reason to believe that it was motivated China's altruism to pass the best price to their American customers.


For 1000kg of steel, bulk of raw input materials, we're looking at ~$500 price difference, i.e. negligible. If you want BOM for other materials, lazy napkin math: PRC auto is ~10% of gdp. PRC industrial subsidies ~2% of GDP. Even if you assume entire industrial subsidy goes towards auto, that still puts it at ~20% of industry. Can western manufacturers compete if PRC cars was ~20% more expensive. Can they compete if BYD seagull was was $12000, vs it selling for $20000 abroad. No. That's without considering west subsidizes the shit out of their auto, and downstream sectors, i.e. US energy.




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