Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

The devaluation of dollar, this is the ultimate way

Let's say, if USD/CNY drops by 20%, the advantage of Chinese products will be erased, if USD/CNY drops by 50%, Chinese industry will be destroyed

Basically, this is the most important method the US used to counter the challenge of Japan in the 1980s.




Would this work well? I mean there are many implications in devaluing USD. Would this potentially lower USD demand as a reserve currency in other countries?


US "convinced" JP, DE, FR, UK to appreciate relative to USD during Plaza Accords in 80s, those countries still got to sell cars/strategic hightech in US, just less of it. US has less leverage to "convince" PRC who has more autonomy to set their dollar peg. US unlikely to allow PRC tech regardless... sanctions/export control and all. PRC fine with devalueing alone with US to keep chipping away at RoW shares. Also consider this means PRC GDP increasing by 20-50% nominal, i.e. surpassing US band, not just on PPP terms but absolute terms.


As you said, the players involved are different, but also the context of 2020's is much different than that of the 80's.

In the late 80's you had a crumbling USSR, a bunch of secondary markets slowly opening up to global trade, and a clear sole economic superpower prevailing.

Now things are a lot less clear. The US is speakig of tariffs (which is essentially restricting themselves from a lot of global trade) while China is more than willing to make trade deals left and right. They already have a large, educated, and skillful workforce.

Sanctions/Export control work to a point, presuming they can't build up their own capabilities and do their own agreements with other countries. It is something you can do well against minor players, not as well against other powerhouses.


> Would this potentially lower USD demand as a reserve currency in other countries?

We don't know, in the 80s, the devaluation of the USD did not weaken its position as the reserve currency, will it be same this time without USSR collapsing and Gulf War?

More importantly, will the PBOC cooperate with the US like the central banks of Japan and Germany did?

I don't know the answer, but I think it won't take too long to see the answer.




Join us for AI Startup School this June 16-17 in San Francisco!

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: