You got some compute hidden in your couch? There's plenty of reason to think there's not enough compute to achieve this, and there's little reason to think compute improves intelligence linearly.
don't you follow the news? Amazon is bidding on nuclear power plants. We will just build more energy sources. We have way too much leeway to go.
Also optimizations are being built both in hardware and software. There is no foreseen barrier. Maybe data to do training but now the models have pivoted to test / inference compute and reinforcement learning and that seems to have no barrier except more compute and energy.
That's what stargate is, UAE princes building datacenters in France is, etc… it's all in the news. So far, it seems like a straight line to AGI
Maybe a barrier will appear but doesn't seem like it atm
Ignoring how long it takes to build a nuclear power plant, and how we have limited resources to do so, is there anything to suggest they're doing that because of AI compute? From what I understand, they just want to be carbon neutral which is difficult to do when your compute needs increase exponentially.
"If we just had a stable way to create net energy from a fusion reactor, we'd solve all energy problems".
Do we have a way to do that? No.