Keep durable notes and share them with your electeds. Particularly at the state level. These kids won’t be prosecuted immediately, possibly never federally. But their actions will need to be systematically undone at the federal level and individually prosecuted at the state and/or local levels. This is going to be a massive bureaucratic and legal undertaking, and we’ll need record preservation to do it.
Lots of state laws around privacy and tort that wouldn’t gain supremacy if a federal court found the DOGE bros didn’t act lawfully. Pardons prevent them from being punished for that lawlessness by the U.S. But it doesn’t stop state courts from finding adversely.
I think maybe the user is implying that a civil war will break out. I started reading about the original American Civil War after recent events. The lead up to that was protracted. As long as some states begin assembling militias now and unify, it's probable they will be able to mount an attack against the Federal government as happened back then.
The 1800s for a very different time when the national army essentially didn't exist. And probably isn't a very good model for what a modern national breakup looks like.
Brexit would be the best case, although most objections to the federal government would be resolved with a reduced size and scope
> maybe the user is implying that a civil war will break out
I’m not. Short of a decapitation strike in which MAGA and Musk are taken out in a night of long knives, which would itself be more destabilising to our republic than anything they’ve done, there is little to play for a military conflict à la the Civil War in a nuclear state. If we’re going to see a civil war, it wouldn’t be states vs U.S. but some compartment of the U.S. claiming legitimate power while another denies it, e.g. the military deposing Trump or him refusing to step down after impeachment and conviction or an electoral loss.
I see. My opinion is that nuclear weapons are more or less useless in a modern conflict, as has been observed in the Russia-Ukraine war with endless Russian sabre-rattling. The collateral damage from nuclear weapons makes their usage suicidal, and in the case of the US, states breaking away from the Federal government would also inherit a nuclear arsenal -- leading to a stalemate.
The Russia-Ukraine war has convinced me that artificial intelligence driven drone warfare has rendered nuclear warfare obsolete. The drones act as a force multiplier which can mass target the enemy with little collateral damage.
> nuclear weapons are more or less useless in a modern conflict, as has been observed in the Russia-Ukraine war with endless Russian sabre-rattling
Russia is constrained by India and China in its use of tactical nukes in Ukraine. That wouldn't apply in America.
> collateral damage from nuclear weapons makes their usage suicidal
The excess damage caused by tactical nukes when compared with conventional weapons, particularly the low-efficiency sort that tend to find their way into civil wars, is principally diplomatic. We're currently seeing a breakdown of the rules-based international order.
> in the case of the US, states breaking away from the Federal government would also inherit a nuclear arsenal
Why? The nukes are on U.S. land, legally and militarily. A state militia attempting to storm a nuclear silo is, if anything, the closest legitimate reason I can think of for why Washington might nuke its own homeland.
> Russia-Ukraine war has convinced me that artificial intelligence driven drone warfare has rendered nuclear warfare obsolete
There have been no AI drones in that war. Drones are reigning free because nobody established air superiority.
> There have been no AI drones in that war. Drones are reigning free because nobody established air superiority.
This hasn't been true since last year, when automated targeting systems began entering the battlefield. They still are not as widely deployed as personnel controlled drones, but over time it appears to be shifting towards battlefield autonomy. Nuclear weapons are a cudgel, automated human-free weapons are a scalpel.
Keep in mind that the ruling party has massively powerful surveillance systems at their fingertips. It's hard to say how things will unfold, but being a dissident may not be in one's best interest.
> being a dissident may not be in one's best interest.
I agree, if you're not a fan of democracy, you might not want to be a dissident in the current American environment. If you are, then you most likely want to be a dissident, otherwise it'll slowly disappear before your eyes, and you'll be too late to be able to change it soon.
If you're in the latter camp, learn how to protect and hide yourself rather than becoming apathetic because you're afraid of the consequences.
Monolithic ruling classes are the political scientific equivalent of spherical cows. The richer model (still spherical, but maybe incorporating drag) is that of elite constituencies.
> being a dissident may not be in one's best interest
If we’re going imperial, dissident status is less risky than being poor. Practically every autocratic transition in history has involved a massive wealth transfer up, together with the dismantling of expensive social safety nets.
"“We’re going to have supervision. Every police officer is going to be supervised at all times, and if there’s a problem, AI will report that problem and report it to the appropriate person. Citizens will be on their best behavior because we are constantly recording and reporting everything that’s going on.”" - Larry Ellison (Oracle).
Larry is the 4th richest person, worth more than the GDP of Ukraine.
It seems like there is a winner-takes-all opportunity here to me. Since many of the billionaires in the US have made the decision to align with Trump, if many of the states unify and can overthrow the government, they also stand to separate the billionaires from their wealth.
The Federal American government looks like it's playing a dangerous game -- or at least makes the assumption that individual states within it will be unable to mount a concerted response. With inflation and unemployment rising, and hundreds of thousands of federal workers out of jobs, it's possible state governments may become radicalized.
Keep durable notes and share them with your electeds. Particularly at the state level. These kids won’t be prosecuted immediately, possibly never federally. But their actions will need to be systematically undone at the federal level and individually prosecuted at the state and/or local levels. This is going to be a massive bureaucratic and legal undertaking, and we’ll need record preservation to do it.