Some other surveys have produced some weird patterns, like [1] which said men in the military were Republican by roughly a 2:1 margin, while women in the military were Democrat by roughly a 2:1 margin - but there are a lot more men than women in the military.
And [2] says, in an analysis of voting precincts that map closely onto military bases, "On average, Mr Trump still won these precincts, though his margin shrank by nearly half. Patrick Air Force Base—located on Florida’s Atlantic coast and since renamed Patrick Space Force Base—supported Mr Trump by a 17-point margin in 2016. By 2020, his lead there shrank to 11 points."
So it may be more even among active duty military than among veterans, but an 11 point margin is still a win. Expecting that in a brawl they'd come out swinging on the Democrat side to me seemed naive, which is why them staying out of it seemed better than nothing.
And [2] says, in an analysis of voting precincts that map closely onto military bases, "On average, Mr Trump still won these precincts, though his margin shrank by nearly half. Patrick Air Force Base—located on Florida’s Atlantic coast and since renamed Patrick Space Force Base—supported Mr Trump by a 17-point margin in 2016. By 2020, his lead there shrank to 11 points."
So it may be more even among active duty military than among veterans, but an 11 point margin is still a win. Expecting that in a brawl they'd come out swinging on the Democrat side to me seemed naive, which is why them staying out of it seemed better than nothing.
[1] https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2018/10... [2] https://archive.is/v6qOf#selection-1067.0-1069.342