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Doge Claimed It Saved $8B in One Contract. It Was $8M (nytimes.com)
215 points by xnx 81 days ago | hide | past | favorite | 124 comments



Also worth highlighting that The Upshot found this error on the first item they reviewed. If already the first one you check is wrong, then the Bayesian in me has a hard time having much confidence in the rest of it.


There are more oddities for sure. For example, when they cancel a multi-year contract they are considering the entire value of the contract as savings even if a significant chunk of the money has already been distributed.


On "Wall of Receipts" on the DOGE website there's a switch with "total contract value" and "savings" options. I guess that the purpose of the second option is to exclude money that has already been paid for that contract. It should be the default option, but of course they want to show a bigger number. But I see some strange cases where total contract value is lower than savings, but that's in real estate, I don't know how that works and what they're doing with that.

https://www.doge.gov/savings


I found and posted that here Monday before the NYT:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43084891


Apparently DOGE are the ones that did it first. DOGE were the ones to update the value to the $8M from $8B that was incorrectly in the system.


So they reported they saved $8 billion after discovering it was really $8 million?

I'm not sure that's better.


No, they were the ones who found that someone entered $8B in the system, asked them to change it to $8M. They never reported saving $8B in their own savings for this program. The numbers they used are tied into the systems so it only updates with the system.


DOGE did claim $8B in savings on their own system on Monday. That's the whole article is about. There's even a screenshot.

The $8B -> $8M change was made in Federal Procurement System on January 22nd.

So if DOGE is who found the issue in the procurement system originally, that means they lied about saving $8B weeks after they discovered it was only for $8M.


Now update your priors about who runs it :-)

"Contradictory statements about Musk make it unclear who runs DOGE" - https://abcnews.go.com/US/white-house-claims-elon-musk-doesn...


You don't need to be the titular head of an agency/department/service/whatever to be the defacto head.


I'm not really sure how that's relevant? I'm not even American, I don't care who runs it. This seems like pointless flame bait.


I think the ubiquity of general disarray and confusion surrounding this agency is relevant to the discussion of whether or not we can trust their intentions and claims. So, further evidence of the extent of this general disarray and confusion is worth considering and not "pointless flame bait".


It's unsurprising given this RAGE/DOGE is mass distraction and/or government obliteration with all of the care of a grizzly bear eating a salmon.


I'm beginning to think these young inexperienced guys aren't quite ready for a big important job.


what happens when you prioritize loyalty over all else.

This hiring and promotion pattern is also why autocracies tend to be mismanaged nightmares


And here I thought these guys were all about "merit"


Loyalty can be a merit.

/s


In an autocratic state or organised crime syndicate (these are rather similar), the only one which really matters, in the end.


According to DOGE, DOGE were actually the ones who found the error in January that someone in the government had entered $8B in the records and DOGE had it updated to $8M.


But that wouldn’t count as savings.


They are 100% ready for this job. It's just that the job is not what they officially say it is...


Oh those young inexperienced guys are quite ready for their big important job, namely, being cannon fodders for destroying the government via fear, uncertainty, and doubt. (And if Trump ever feels they've outlived their usefulness, he can dispose of them freely.)

It's just that it's not the job they thought they were signing up for.


A case study in the need for teaching of and leading for engineering ethics.


But Musk successfully build a new type of fast travel car tunnel?

And he optimized twitters value to 10 Billion?!


It wasn’t $8M either since some of the contracted amount has already been spent. They should have used $5.5M in the headline.


Even better, it was already public. Like basically everything on DOGE's fake savings site listing the things they've 'found'. Literally already published on a US government site: https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_IDV_70CMSD22A00000008...


Can we do anything about a government agency making such a gross lie?


Call your Senators and House representatives at (202) 224-3121.


Which agency?



What's a few orders of magnitude among friends, eh?


I draw the line at 5 personally. 4 if I'm being picky.

A mere 1,000x difference? This is just pedantry


Cut your friendly neighborhood billionaire some slack. How else will you expect him to expand companies to serve you better, airplanes that don't crash for example.


But it's so competitive to become the world's first trillionaire. So all is fair: monkey wrenches, caltrops, and oil slicks to elbow out the upstarts.


According to DOGE:

In September 2022, the agency contracting officer mistakenly wrote $8B instead of $8M when logging in the FPDS database. DOGE discovered this error in January 2025, and the agency updated FPDS accordingly. DOGE has always used the correct $8M in its calculations.


Except on this website on Monday.


They can't code and they cant count. This DOGE endeavor is an embarassment.


What happened to trust but verify?


Trust but verify just means "Don't trust, verify".


Or more precisely: "be polite, but verify"


How long do keep trusting when your verifications keep failing?


trust is earned.


Trust me bro, no need to verify.


This just seems like a case of attacking the messenger


This is an attack on the message and its author, not the messenger.


It looks like doge just taking credit for the switch from 8 billion to 8 million that happened two days after Trump took office


The contract, with a company called D&G Support Services, was to provide “program and technical support services” for the Office of Diversity and Civil Rights at ICE.

... the federal award, approved in September 2022, had initially listed a total value of $8 billion. But on Jan. 22 this year, that figure was updated to $8 million.

DOGE involvement aside, that right there is not exactly the exculpatory evidence NY Times thinks it is.


Humans make mistakes. The good ones fix them, and update the number. The bad ones update the link the hide their error and keep the old number.

“Our government has typos that get fixed!” is not the zing you think it is either.


[flagged]


I'm not against gov efficiency.

I just find it disrespectful to try to do this in a week while trump has 4 years to clean up.

This disruptive behavior kills people and hasn't provided any efficiency for real waste.

Btw government jobs are good. Capitalism is not the end goal.


[flagged]


The USA is not just a democracy, it is a republic. Trump is not all-powerfull for 4 years because he won one election.

If you think so, then I can see a future Democrat president curtailing the 2nd amendment via executive fiat. You happy with that? This is how democracy works, right?


The USA is both a democracy (we vote) and a republic (we have a president instead of a monarch). They are not mutually exclusive. It is, in fact, a democratic republic.


[flagged]


It's only been 18 minutes. Usually takes 30 minutes to get flagged.


And right on time, there's the flag.


I just refreshed HN. This story is #10 when I'm logged in and gone when viewing from a private window.


It just got unflagged? I didn't know an article could get unflagged.


At a certain point in terms of points you get the ability to vouch for flagged stuff. Altough, I think that privilege can be taken away if abused


It goes to [flagged][dead], people vouch because it’s [dead] until it’s no longer [flagged] or [dead], then flagged back to [flagged] and it can’t be vouched anymore.


Permaflagged now.


It's open corruption and it seems the silicon valley acquaintances are all in on it. It's truly a spectacle to see from outside of the US right now.


If they were this article wouldn't appear on the front page in the first place; it's a community vote, and while one could posit it's malicious actors / bots / etc, at the same time there's enough people that are sick of political reporting and articles.

It's the downside of a democratic system, if enough people dislike it things will go away.


Making sure people are "sick" of political reporting and articles is exactly the strategy of modern authoritarian governance, from Russia to Hungary.

The US Founding Fathers would judge extremely harshly modern people disengaging from their duties as citizens.


My duties as a citizen are one thing. I don't have those same duties as a reader of HN, though. This site doesn't have to be /r/politics; we have /r/politics for that.


Having experienced the oligarch takeover in the post-Soviet Ukraine, looking at it from the inside is as surreal. People will be studying this collapse for centuries, and this is ONLY the beginning.


There's a bunch of us who aren't buddying up to Musk. We're just tired of 10 Musk posts a day.

Most politics are off topic here. Yeah, there's some exceptional stuff going on, that's worth talking about. No, that doesn't mean that every political story is now something we should cover.

But for every story, there are people who say, "Yes, but this story is one we should cover!" That's fine; you can think that.

What's less fine is thinking that everyone who flags it is licking Musk's and/or Trump's boots. That's not cool. That's 1) not assuming good faith, and 2) drifting into personal attacks, both of which are against the site rules.

So cool it with accusing us of being Musk sycophants. Some of us are just tired of the same stuff multiple times a day, every day for the past month.

Note well: I personally did not flag this story... but I understand why others might.


HN as an ivory tower.


[flagged]


That’s not what I see. Usually it’s posts making factual claims that aren’t backed by evidence or which are otherwise breaking guidelines. The former seems to be a more widespread problem from what I’ve seen.


This post is now permaflagged.


The pro-DOGE comments generally tend to repeat Musk/Trump/DOGE allegations, without evidence in support of those allegations. Trump and Musk are serial fabulists.

On the other hand, you have the anti-DOGE folks who can credibly claim that, unless shown otherwise, the things being shredded by DOGE were apportioned legally by a co-equal branch of government, and that the president does notnhave the right to undermine a co-equal branch of government. In America, we do not have an all-powerful executive.


And yet every story mentioning Doge, musk, or Trump are instantly flagged.

Almost like most of the HN readership disagree with their actions, but a minority still manages to get the stories removed?


It's not surprising, maybe even coordinated. Reddit has a similar problem of Musk fanboys brigading threads about Tesla, coming from Discord chats.

And look at the bottom of the page. YC is advertising an "AI Startup School" with Musk and Altman. Peter Thiel was a member at some point. I'm not implying the mods are putting their thumb on the scale but this site does attract people who are pro-oligarchy if they think they too can make a buck.


I wondering why HN had so few posts critical of Musk and Trump


Show me one that has substance. I see a lot of really wild stuff, but it all boils down to indirect attacks [0], not arguments. Seen any different? Show me.

[0] "why did democrats/progressives/leftists never say anything when.." and all that, basically lumping all criticism of this into whatever fantasy category the author happens to prefer, and then projecting what is being avoided on that category of people.

Some want to talk about the substance, others kick up sand, and then some people say "oh this is not nice, let's split the difference and just shut it all down until it goes away". Which is essentially the end result of what all the kicking up sand is trying to achieve.


Do you think there exist any circumstances in which the NYT would say anything against the liberal narrative? Specifically, if there was incontrovertible evidence of government waste uncovered by DOGE, or anything else where there were facts and evidence but stating them would make the president look good, would NYT report it? Or would they ignore it? Or, just a theory here, maybe they would minimize it? You know, get the views from the story but apply a treatment to reduce values, like say, dollar values? Could they ever be capable of such a thing?


Where is this huge waste though?

Musk said they will clean up, I only have seen false information, wrong numbers and the removal of a few millions of aid which is something the biggest economy on the planet should easily be able to afford.

If condoms against HIV is the biggest win so far, the question would be if it's valid to disrupt millions of lives and destroying/ignoring the separation of power in a / the biggest democracy we nlknow.


Also, all of this will definitely mean loss of soft power throughout the world for the States.


They'd absolutely report on it. I consume news from many different conservative and liberal sources. NYT newsroom is still one of the best and while bias can't be completely eliminated, they are fair. The opinion section of course leans to the left, and I find little value in it, but that has no bearing on the newsroom.


The NYT has decades of qualification in uncovering government waste from all administrations. Their greatest failure - the fake pretense that led to the second US-Iraq war - occured in favor of a Republican administration.


DOGE uncovered its own waste and incompetence, that is about it.


> Do you think there exist any circumstances in which the NYT would say anything against the liberal narrative?

Get real. NYT has promoted Trump bullshit lies for years.


[flagged]


If you don't want to called a duck, stop quacking.


Because he is?

He bought a propaganda platform, manipulated the public and has now a seat in the lap of trump.

He said for 10 years Tesla cars will drive itself, he says doge saved billions but so far they just cut things and haven't found the smoking gun and very soon they will take Medicaid away and social security.

Billionaires who don't need a state dismantling the social state to make more money.


A more appropriate question might be: why are you not?


[flagged]


They already wasted $500M in loss of perishable goods. So a "saving" of -$492 million so far.


No, because the $8M was allocated by a coequal branch of government. The president gets to veto things at that stage, not afterward.

Should the president have an ex post facto veto for everything? That sounds more like an autocracy to me.


The ends don't justify the means in a Constitutional Republic


Tens of thousands of jobs lost. Inflation rising steadily.

Hundreds of thousands of poor affected. Pregnant and disabled people in real danger due to cutting health program funding throughout the country.

The closest 2 neighbors on the verge of declaring the United States not longer an 'ally'.

But yeah, $8M is $8M.


[flagged]


What large entities do Musk and his crew have experience with auditing? None? Musk and his crew have no clue what they're doing, and they have no experience doing it. Only a fool would believe anything they say on the matter.


Respectfully, I don't see how that comment relates to this discussion, can you help me better understand what you're going for?

In this case, DOGE confused 8M for 8B. That's 3 orders of magnitude of difference.

I don't see how having payments labeled differently would change that. Can you clarify what you're implying the problem was here?


DOGE didn't even confuse it - the system of record was wrong then updated later to a lower amount. These are exactly the kinds of problems with the system.


How are these "audits" going to uncover anything when the team moves on from them declaring great success in 2-3 days?


That has been my question. They are just cutting line items out of a csv from what I assume are Ai results.

I’d be surprised if anything was correct at all.


The only reason I'd do this is to bolster Thiel's portofolio companies. With this data the spy software and AI will be the most complete version of the American population's relationships and dealings. Every financial transaction, every coffee purchase paid by digital currency can now be profiled against Palantir and Anduril's tech stack.

Honestly who cares about a few billion in savings when it comes to a nation's dealings. It was always about the data.


It doesn't actually matter if they 'save' any money, it's a systematic use of smoke and mirrors to dismantle checks and balances to on the one side give free reign to capitalism and on the other to concentrate power. But this wasn't a secret, and 77 million people voted in favor of it despite knowing this was the plan.


Musk is exagerrating as usual; everything is auditable, but not everything is always easy and instantaneous. He has unrealistic expectations and he's not really improving things. DOGE could have set up a better system but they instead seem hell bent on trashing everything (and getting write access on these systems they pretend to audit - meaning they can plant false data against the previous administration to try them Soviet-style).


Lol, no. Musk will say anything just to blame his own mistakes onto someone else. If Musk wanted to do audit, he should have do audit rather then what he is doing now.

Either way, "payments weren't labeled with any auditable information" is nonsense claim. It means nothing. Payments are auditable even if they have zero labels attached to them.


"As Musk as said"

Any statement by Elon Musk is worthless. It's actually worse than worthless in that it is often an intentional lie intending to muddy the waters if not just grossly mislead.

"the Treasury payments weren't labeled with any auditable information"

Do you really, truly believe this? I'm going to assume you don't and are having a laugh, because someone would have to be profoundly gullible to actually believe such a blatant lie by a self serving clown like Elon Musk.

Musk and crew are like the absolute worst garbage programmer that ten minutes into looking at a codebase tell you that it's terrible code and needs to be thrown away, but don't worry they're going to build something super way better. Their own incompetence and lack of understanding is projected out.

They are walking into immensely complex, massive systems -- doing things they have *zero* experience or credibility doing -- and looking at, for instance, the optional, largely meaningless "description" field on a payment and passing judgment. This is worthless analysis. It isn't an "audit", it's godzilla stomping.

The US is going to to take countless hundreds of billions and decades to recover from what these imbeciles are doing. Even more perplexing are the number of people who truly think they're doing good.


Nothing they are doing even takes very much skill at all. It's literally reading records and actually looking at them. That is exactly what wasn't being done before.


>That is exactly what wasn't being done before

Did Elon Musk tell you this? You believed it?

>Nothing they are doing even takes very much skill at all

It requires the skill of understand all of the components, systems and partners involved in every transaction. Elon and crew have amply demonstrated that they don't understand any of those parts, nor are they interested in any due diligence or actual work.

Because they don't have to. There is a large enough contingent of Americans that will accept whatever garbage they say, however outrageous the lie or falsity.

The US has descended to an unbelievably corrupt idiocracy. People were too comfortable so they want a little chaos, and they're going to get it. In four years, the tens of millions that voted for this profound stupidity are going to claim the Dems made them or something. But her emails.


> There is a large enough contingent of Americans that will accept whatever garbage they say, however outrageous the lie or falsity.

Pot, meet kettle.


> Musk and crew are like the absolute worst garbage programmer that ten minutes into looking at a codebase tell you that it's terrible code and needs to be thrown away, but don't worry they're going to build something super way better. Their own incompetence and lack of understanding is projected out.

You know this is silly right? Musk's team just released a very competitive AI product. Telsa has self-driving cars. Starlink is providing internet and cellular service all over the global via a network of satellites.

And you think he's not competent enough to audit a payment system? Never mind the fact he used to be one of the owners of PayPal, an actual payment system.

I know people don't like Musk, I get it. But these are delusional takes.


People who are experts in AI built Grok. People who are experts in automotive engineering built Tesla. People who are experts in rockets built SpaceX.

Why aren't people who are experts in audits doing the audits?


>I know people don't like Musk, I get it. But these are delusional takes.

I am simply awe-struck at your cultish nonsense.

I am a great software developer. I am an expert at complex AI systems. That doesn't make me a truck driver. It doesn't make me a heart surgeon. It doesn't make me a forensic auditor. It doesn't make me an architect or a packaging designer or a dietician or a beautician. I'm not insane or stupid enough to think my narrow expertise means I'm an expert at all things because I am intelligent enough to understand how incredibly stupid that would be.

And yes, they have already, time and again, proven how incredibly incompetent they are. Just shocking, outrageous incompetence.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/upshot/doge-contracts-mus...

Ooops! What's a factor of 1000?

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/12/politics/some-of-the-things-t...

Ooops! Totally wrong part of the globe. But, you know, say something about condom bombs for the clucking masses of imbeciles.

These clowns are idiots. They know nothing about forensic auditing (Musk's "gosh a payment description line isn't filled in therefore it's untrackable" is so outlandishly stupid that only absolute imbeciles buy this nonsense), and the fact that Musk was forced on PayPal or that he spends money on rockets or cars to justify his incredible overreach is...shockingly dumb.

You had to have posted that in jest. You had to.

Forensic auditing takes lots of time and effort and tracking and error checking and assurances. When this idiot rushes in and makes immediate proclamations, instantly he is discounted as a charlatan. Amazing that this actually works on some people.


Shows even hackers are prone to propaganda. It's a shame such ignorance is flaunted on full display in a forum about encouraging and exploring curiosity.


Musk seems totally qualified to manage a team of programmers and a team of auditors based on his real-world experience managing companies that work in high tech and financial sectors. He seems infinitely more qualified than whatever political appointees were running federal departments.

I don't think we've reached the 'forensic' auditing stage, we're at the 'gathering information' stage. We see the smoke, now we'll need to investigate for fires. Basic payment controls not being present seem like a huge red flag to me. Is Musk lying? Maybe. Are bureaucrats incompetent? Absolutely. Take the example payments to prohibited entities such as terrorists groups being rubber stamped. That's pretty damning if true.

Two articles from left-wing Musk-hating media aren't going to be read by me because both of those institutions have a history of propaganda and outright lying.


>And you think he's not competent enough to audit a payment system?

No, I do not trust even the best engineers to do a government wide audit in the course of weeks. The audit itself would take months alone before making any suggestions on budget.

And it's unnecessary because I guess know one knows that GOA exists already for that.

> But these are delusional takes.

If you're early in your career, I hope you look back 5, 10 years from now and realize how insane everything you said is. You're comparing a private business releasing a product to auditing one of the largest countries in earth worth 10s of trillions.


Do you really imagine Musk hunched over his laptop, pouring through government codebases and data carefully to find issues, stopping every 2 mins to send a tweet? You really think he has anything to do with this "audit"?


This is precisely the reason to not just shut shit down willy-nilly.


[flagged]


What/which elites and empires are being squeezed?


Young fire prevention workers at the Forest Service making $30k/year, obviously.


Anybody can do that job. Same with Energy department specialists who move nuclear warheads.


Ukraine, duh. /s


The "elites"? Good god.

The richest man in the world stomped on USAID, a program that helps the poorest people on the planet, with it taking billions in payments from US farmers. Enormous numbers of low-level government civil servants were unceremoniously turfed from their job, many new grads who had just moved for said job. Researchers are having funding yanked. You know, like the people who cure disease.

The elites are the people absolutely unharmed. In fact they're the ones who bankrolled and fooled tens of millions of Americans into voting for this oligarchy.


[flagged]


Who said that? We had at least 3 recessions in 30 years.

And what does that have to do with the elite? They don't care about recession. Worst case they move to a new country pending full collapse. They will never own up to the consequences of their actions.


Seeing that article -- an article that basically has zero actual foundation for its headline -- quoted constantly by people justifying an autocracy / oligarchy, is simply amazing.

Americans are staggeringly, blissfully unaware of what they have to lose. Of how far things can fall. And they are going to fall at a shocking clip.

And somehow you'll blame that on Democrats. It's the norm.


[flagged]


Well Trump bankrupted his casinos and Elon Musk turned twitter from a break even company into one that loses money every year.

Now, it's time for their double act of economic ruination for the US.


To be honest, i do not care much for the clownish figureheads of the tribalist regression. I care for a extensive root cause analysis, so that there is a viable, voteable-for alternative in 3 years when democracy comes once again to the test. One that has no old democratic figureheads (well maybe except for bernie) and no "right on, right on" as program. I want party internal reform and if for that the party as a whole has to renorm and give up on beloved ideas it deemed more important than the voters thus far so be it.


What underdog?

Trump had already 4 years in office.

Reps had the office before obama.

Do you think everyone in the USA gov is an utter idiot and musk is now saving USA?!


What happens to dogs that bite, though?

Also, calling Trump supporters "dogs" is more demeaning and more insulting than any "deplorables" stuff. This is not even anti-intellectual stuff, this is anti-human.


This sounds like echoing the brainwashing and doublethink; the "elite" is in power at the moment and they are building an empire.


I think this was an honest mistake. But it demonstrates exactly why it’s so dangerous for Elon Musk and our president to make sweeping accusations before understanding the situation.

Lives are being ruined right now - federal employees, citizens who rely on the programs being cut, and people around the world who benefited from US generosity.

The sad part about all of this is that clearly in a system as large as the federal government, there is waste. Elon has the opportunity to make a real impact, but he’s demonstrated that he just cares about optics and will not put in the effort required.


They have not updated the site with the correct total and have removed the documentation of the correct value and replaced it with a link to the incorrect value. In those circumstances it takes an extreme stretching on the imagination to consider it an honest mistake.


My personal expectations of someone optimizing the spending of the biggest military power on the planet apparently seem to be higher than yours.

I would have a proper research and validation team in place making sure there are only correct information being shared


I would have called it an honest mistake at the beginning of the month. I more or less lost the BOTD when he forced his way into USAID

>Elon has the opportunity to make a real impact, but he’s demonstrated that he just cares about optics and will not put in the effort required.

That was clear at least 7 years ago. Never too late to realize this but I sure wish more people researched back in 2024.


> Elon has the opportunity to make a real impact, but he’s demonstrated that he just cares about optics and will not put in the effort required.

Musk is using his opportunity to do real impact and is achieving real impact. Exactly the impact he wanted and want. He has exactly optics he wants and exactly material changes he wants.

The impact is not positive to most people affected by it, but Elon Musk demonstrated again and again and again and again that he does not care about that.




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