The market will remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Stock price is not directly tied to a company's performance. It's tied to investor sentiment of a company's performance in the future.
I mean both. Investors tell themselves a stock price will go up due to company performance. Performance can mean a lot of things to different people and isn't necessarily tied to fiscal performance. No one is buying stock and thinking, "this company will tank, and that will cause the stock to shoot up" outside of very specific situations and events.
Exactly, which is why this stock is going to zero. ZERO.
In the US, cars are a huge part of people's identity, and brand is everything. It's a major purchase and a multi-year commitment.
Imagine you don't follow politics closely, but you're in the market for a car sometime in the next 12 months. All of a sudden when you go to the Tesla dealership, you have to fight your way past protesters. You start to see Teslas spray painted with swastikas for some reason. You hear the phrase "swasticar."
Tesla is destroying their most valuable asset (their brand), which takes years to build and usually can't be rebuilt. As sales begin to take a meaningful hit, institutional investors will start to get out, and it will be a feedback loop that will force the price down. They'll sell the assets to Ford for pennies.
I hope you make out. TSLA has been taking a beating over the last month. I think a lot of (tech) stocks are about to crash. I think the tariffs and government layoffs will finally burst the bubble that the FED has been trying to pop for a while.
Your prediction seems to be coming true! For my part, I’m still shorting TSLA, and needless to say, it’s going well. Thanks for the nudge to put my money where my mouth is.
OP, probably like me, isn't putting money against Tesla.
And at some point, reality comes crashing down.
Tesla will not dominate the autonomous taxi market. Basically every major car company has tech comparable with Tesla (Mercedes, GM, etc).
Tesla will not dominate the battery market. Heck, I think they still DON'T make their own batteries (it's all collaborations with LG Chemical and other chemical companies and they have shared licensing and stuff).
And you can fool some people all the time and all the people some time, but you can't fool all the people, all the time.
Once Tesla becomes a bit player in China (Chinese companies are ruthless), gets mauled in Europe (starting to happen), what could possibly justify their market cap? The US? It will be saturated at a certain point. India? Not growing fast enough to make up for it, the Indian economy is 1/7th the US one and Indian disposable incomes are probably 1/50th the US ones...
To be fair, in the US, Tesla has the best FSD, by far.
But in the EU the self-driving software they released sucks (even Mercedes has way better system, at least in Germany, and takes liability on their shoulders), other electric cars have better finish, and they have support for things like Stalks, that European users actually want, due to roundabouts.
Seeing 'the best FSD' in a sentence is odd - it makes it sound there are multiple FSDs out there, and Tesla's FSD is the best. At the same time, it is not actually self-driving, rather it is a supervised system that has been called FSD for marketing and false promise purposes.
It's crazy! They have a 149.04 PE ratio! Their humanoid robots are behind Chinese counterparts, in fact, they are catching up rather than leading. Tesla is losing ground to other EVs while being lower in quality, more expensive, and carrying a negative connotation due to Musk. Taxis? Look at Waymo or the self-driving system currently working in China, sold by Huawei (ADS v3.2). The only thing they have is their CEO, a charlatan, selling tales about future.
Yes but the stock has obviously not reflected reality for a while. Tesla as a car company never justified the stock valuation, which implied it would take over 100% of the entire US market.
