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It looks like the US wants a regime change in Ukraine, it's possible that this became a pre condition from russia for talks to go forward.

OTOH, a minerals deal with the US ensures that the US will have a stake in defending the postwar ukraine.

Lots of drama and optics involved for sure, but it seems the outcome or the talks was predetermined

JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him?




If the Vice Presidency is vacant, the President nominates and Congress (both houses) confirm.

> Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

25th Amendment

https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv

The VP can be removed by Congress (impeachment), the President cannot direct the VP to vacate the office.


And of course the whole VP nomination happened with Ford, who replaced Agnew without election and then replaced Nixon without election.


and Francis J. Underwood!


With the current string of SCOTUS decisions, Trump can have the VP shot at dawn, declare it an official act, and elect Musk as the new VP.


That would not be directing him to vacate the office, but yes he could probably do that. But he wouldn't elect Musk, he could nominate Musk. He'd still need Congress (beholden to Musk for their future seats if GOP) to confirm him. But you also have to be qualified to be President to be Vice President, so Musk would be disqualified anyways.


Who is going to disqualify him? Republicans would just invent some doublethink for why it is okay for this particular African to have that role. The extremely partisan SCOTUS will allow it, and that will be that.


If SCOTUS says it's ok, then the US Constitution is completely tossed out and SCOTUS has no authority to say anything. That's not to say they wouldn't make a decision like that, but to disregard the literal text of the Constitution would make both Congress and SCOTUS unnecessary, they can be scrapped in seconds with an EO after a decision like that.


They'd pull the same stunt that they did for Trump. If Trump had been convicted for the Jan 6th riot, that would've disqualified him from becoming president. So SCOTUS dragged out the appeal that reached them. Then their decision made it ridiculously burdensome to continue. If Musk were nominated as vice president and somebody sued, SCOTUS could drag out that case past the end of the term. Then they'd drop it as moot.


IMO they have been ignoring the literal text of the Constitution for quite some time.


We've already had that decision, last year. Trump v. Anderson. Per the Supreme Court, if Congress doesn't explicitly call something out down to the last detail and already have anyone potentially impacted on double-secret probation, then oops, too bad, nothing anyone else can do to enforce the Constitution.

The Vice-President and President need to meet the standards in the Constitution? Did Congress pass a law establishing how those standards are to be judged and enforced? No? Guess they don't matter then. If Congress wanted, it could pass a law and Trump could sign it. Unless that happens, the Constitution is just unenforceable. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


if a foreign born person can not become president, i guess they can't become vp either?


that is correct but the OP's point is that SCOTUS won't care about that


right, ok


In Russia they say, "we have lots of laws, just no one pays any attention to them". Russia is a law-less State. Concur with how things are progressing now in USA. Congress and Senate both subverted by too many voters being deceived by D. Elections not well-informed, so not actually functional.


> elect Musk as the new VP

I think Musk is unconstitutional for that role? Not natural born Anerican.


Those rules surely only apply to regular peasants^Wsubjects^Wpeople


I don't know what would get the military to refuse orders, but I suspect that openly disregarding the constitution is one of the more likely.


There’s a strong argument to go with who has the most satellites.


you just launder a SCOTUS decision with some braindead argument and 50% of the country will believe it overnight


Sure, and I'd default to assuming the % in the military is always higher because they're trained to follow orders.

But if anything makes some among them say "to allow this would be to violate my oath to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic", then disregarding the constitution would be it.

I'm not saying the administration wouldn't try it. I am suggesting that it may lead to a demonstration of how NIJ RF3 doesn't stop 120×570mm NATO.


Vance has even better chances of lasting the entire term after his pro-Russia performance today.


Would you like to wager against JD Vance lasting the entire term?


Seriously. He parroted his boss to the best of his ability. I'm sure trump is perfectly pleased with his "performance".


And just generally, every time someone told me Trump wasn’t going to last the first term or run again I tried to bet them. A few took me up.

It’s a strange fantasy that guy you don’t like will just go away. How many presidents or VPs don’t last a full term? Anyone who thinks that has let their emotions divorce their logic from reality, and is thus a good person to wager against


I suspect Trump lasting the entire term is less likely.

If something happens to Trump after January 20th, 2027, Vance can serve out the remainder of this term, then run as the incumbent for two additional terms as a frontman for the Musk/Thiel axis, a role he has played well for some time.

If the country's rulers want to bother to keep the pretense of Constitutional government, that is.


> OTOH, a minerals deal with the US ensures that the US will have a stake in defending the postwar ukraine.

Most of the minerals are in russian-occupied territory, so if they want that they would also need to further arm Ukraine now.


It does not seem like Trump actually wants a deal. They are not offering anything. It appears to be simply a pretext to have some reason to berate Ukraine and Zelenskyy.

"Oh you won't take our [completely ridiculous] deal? I guess we'll just have to side with Russia then!" Like that's not what they were going to do anyway.


nope, they can do a deal with the Russians.


> JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him?

fwiw, the President cannot fire the VP. The Vice Presidency is an independent political office.


Vance is currently trading sideways to slightly up on Kalshi's market for who will be the Republican nominee in the next election.


>a minerals deal with the US ensures that the US will have a stake in defending the postwar ukraine.

It will not. Trump will simply use the deal as an excuse to betray Ukraine (more than he already has). I can practically hear it playing out now.

"I had to force Ukraine to completely surrender to Russia. It was the only way to make sure Russia honored the mineral rights granted to my billionaire friends."


> JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him?

Why won't he last long?


Too controversial, tends to overshadow his notoriously insecure boss


This is what made Mike Pence the perfect VP for Trump at the time - he was never gonna steal the spotlight from Trump. However, Trump is focused almost entirely on loyalty now - the one thing that Mike Pence lacked in the end.


Mike Pence was loyal to his boss -- the US Constitution -- to the end. He would never have thrived under the new Constitution-free order any way.


> It looks like the US wants a regime change in Ukraine, it's possible that this became a pre condition from russia for talks to go forward.

It's not just possible, it was stated openly multiple times by Russian diplomats. The official position is: anything signed by Zelensky has potential to be invalidated later, because according to constitution of Ukraine he is not a legitimate president anymore. So this legal loophole should be removed before signing any agreements.


> JdVance will not last for long - is there procedure to replace him?

Why would he "not last long"? Who would remove him? Would they not also remove Trump if they could remove Vance?


I think Vance will stay; he’s playing Trump’s tune.


Putin said he would gladly share with the US. So there is yet another, larger carrot dangling in front of Trump's eyes.


Like Gaza for the development of Kushner's hotels on the seaside.

And I bet the right-wing-conservative scum helping him from Israel already got their shares.


The outcome was predetermined. Z was not fully sold on this, and Trump/Vance just wanted to maximize the optics, hence the fall out. Just a small ripple, the deep states will rebalance this out.




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