I was expecting something like this to happen in 2023 after the catastrophic summer offensive. That was when it became abundantly clear that Ukraine was losing the war. There wasnt even a viable plan for victory after that it was just... keep giving weapons and keep those fingers crossed.
For Trump this is about washing his hands of a war that he understands cannot be won and will become an albatross around his neck if he doesnt disengage.
A makes complete sense if you have a full picture of the military industrial situation, but in the west there is very little cognizance of just how badly Ukraine is losing not how limited western options are.
"Krasov" is an appealing explanation because it means not facing this bitter reality.
Three years on and Ukraine is still holding its own. There's no reason this couldn't become Russia's Afghanistan 2.0.
Moreover, Ukraine's rules of engagement have been severely limited. They've been unable to strike airfields inside Russia even though they have the capacity to do so.
It's really not holding its own. The military situation is dire. Budanov accidentally let slip that they can keep going for another 6 months...1 month ago. That's probably about when a catastrophic line collapse will occur, if not sooner.
It's unlikely to become another Afghanistan because A) it does not have Afghanistan's superlative geography for hit and run attacks on supply chains and B) coz this war burned through Ukraine's best troops such that now mostly all they have left are TCC-kidnapped soldiers who would rather submit to Russia than fight.
For Trump this is about washing his hands of a war that he understands cannot be won and will become an albatross around his neck if he doesnt disengage.
A makes complete sense if you have a full picture of the military industrial situation, but in the west there is very little cognizance of just how badly Ukraine is losing not how limited western options are.
"Krasov" is an appealing explanation because it means not facing this bitter reality.