Uhhh. I believe you have misread the post. The only thing I said was that an invasion was not imminent. And as you yourself are pointing out, they would not be ready for such a thing until 2027.
But I also don't see your point. "Don't believe the CIA, but do believe the Pentagon (according to this article), and also do believe China's propaganda minister". Clearly it's a thing the US Intelligence community disagrees on. But if Xi is saying China needs to be capable of having a massive sealift operation by 2027, arguing over whether it will actually happen or not is not actually relevant.
As a word of caution. Hitler denied plans for an invasion of France, as did the US for Iraq, or Putin for Ukraine - to give a variety of examples. If a dictator says ahead of time that they have a goal, we should not be surprised if they actually go for it.
Very likely. I interpreted your comment(s) to say that "The CCP said that they wanted to invade Taiwan by 2027", but my interpretation is seemingly wrong, and I ended up trying to address what I thought you said.
> we should not be surprised if they actually go for it.
Whether Xi invades Taiwan or not, I wouldn't be surprised either way. I'm not doubting at all that China has expansionist designs on Taiwan and the South China Sea. But there are many paths to reunification with Taiwan without starting a direct war. Why would China invade, when its leaders can clearly see that Russia, through strategic patience, bribery, and aggressive hybrid warfare, has finally won the Cold War without ever having to invade the US militarily?
Bribery is rampant among high-ranking military officers in Taiwan, for example. Many of them have been exposed to have sold classified information to the Chinese government for trifling amounts of money. China has also managed to poach a lot of former TSMC engineers to work at SMIC by offering generous salaries. Why take military action against Taiwan today (or in 2027) when China just has to be very, very patient, especially with Trump dragging the US into the realm of irrelevance?
All paths lead to Rome. China's war on Taiwan might be much more insidious and subtle than we expect.
But I also don't see your point. "Don't believe the CIA, but do believe the Pentagon (according to this article), and also do believe China's propaganda minister". Clearly it's a thing the US Intelligence community disagrees on. But if Xi is saying China needs to be capable of having a massive sealift operation by 2027, arguing over whether it will actually happen or not is not actually relevant.
As a word of caution. Hitler denied plans for an invasion of France, as did the US for Iraq, or Putin for Ukraine - to give a variety of examples. If a dictator says ahead of time that they have a goal, we should not be surprised if they actually go for it.