I have invested considerable personal resources into fighting for democracy in my country and ended up having to flee leaving behind a rather comfortable life. The United States has always been an inspiration despite its well-known flaws.
Watching this situation unfold is very disturbing. And especially disheartening is the behavior of Republican representatives. A mere month ago these same people were Ukraine's best friends and world's dictators' most hawkish enemies and suddenly they are all parroting a completely opposite narrative. I mean, I can understand electing a pathalogical liar. Happened in my country as well. But turns out others were lying too? Suddenly turns out there's no commitment to values, but only a commitment to one man? If this can happen so easily in a 250 years old democracy, is democracy even worth fighting for? Is the Ukrainians' sacrifice worth it?
Just talking aloud here and not trying to say anything in particular: I've been an HSBC customer for 20 years, 6/7 years ago things started to get a bit weird, and then there was a full blown withdrawal. I do a small amount of business with kids of CCP folks, 2/3 years ago things in those relationships changed also. I've thought for a while now there is something pretty big brewing behind the scenes, the way Trump reacted to Zelensky saying that the USA is going to feel some stuff... again, I'm not trying to say something, I'm not saying war, aliens, paradigm shifting tech, I don't know what I'm saying, but my gut says something starkly unusual is brewing.
DEFCON started the Frankin project less than a year ago. Purpose is to work with the small mom and pop people across the country and volunteer to harden their security. The consensus being that China will be launching a major offensive in the next 5-7 years and this country filled with small pockets of people doing their own thing are deeply vulnerable to having their infrastructure being crippled in a "first strike" kind of attack. Think about it, so much of the country is decentralized and a lot of the people have their infrastructure that the country depends on just running on outdated junk.
The rest of this decade is make or break for the next 20+ years. I honestly don't know if the US is really on the right path. Maybe letting Musk cut everything so the country can focus on the core essentials will save us? Maybe it will doom us? If we go down, I suspect he will go down with us (never getting to mars) so there is that at least. Maybe it doesn't matter anymore? Maybe there really is no leadership at the top so the window has closed and we are just sleepwalking into a depressing era of pain and suffering?
Well I'm Canadian I would really prefer you didn't fall over, it means we're going down also, and I can't say we're the folks you need to be picking a fight with yet our country is boo'ing your anthem at our sports games we're so annoyed. Maybe we need to be here for some reason, I don't know, but it seems like the twilight zone...(btw:have you seen how good robots are recently? amazingly good...)
So you too have noticed "something" that cannot be quantified as "event" yet. I would say from around 2014 things started to move in strange directions here and there around the world. I am not sure if what is brewing is highly unusual, but I would say it is not something we have seen in a last 50-70 years.
Maybe it's just because they're anticipating fallout from an escalation over Taiwan?
Large US tech companies would be crippled because they'd suddenly loose access to top chips and manufacturing capacity over night.
We're living in a classic "pre-war era," similar to what people said about living in Germany between the wars. I don't know what the war is going to be about or even who the sides are going to be (hopefully I won't be on either of them), but I think that's what the tension is about.
HSBC is effectively fully exiting the west. US, Canada and this year UK was announced, also noticed the floors in our building that the ICBK are on are coming up for availability.
If you dig in, you will find that HSBC is an Asian bank with a British regulatory structure. HSBC Group is large, and functionally HQ'd in hong kong, but on top of that, as I said, if you dig in, you'll find a lot of things that show HSBC is an Asian bank with a British regulatory structure, it's why it's used by people like myself.
You’re absolutely right to be concerned. We’re watching a long-term strategy being played out and America is largely a pawn and blind to it because the average person, leaders included, can’t imagine what our world might look like beyond the next 4 years.
The reality is, strategically, China is much much much wiser than the US is and the puzzle pieces are starting to come together in all the ways that are good for them.
And if you want proof of my statement that our society is in denial, watch this comment get downvoted into oblivion.
For one, I’m somewhat familiar with Chinese culture and how their government functions. I would warn against underestimating how quickly they can turn things around, both culturally and economically. They have the ability to make sudden drastic changes with little pushback or resistance from the population. They have focus, reliably execute, and recover relatively quickly from mistakes and are getting increasingly good at social engineering to enable those things. They are thinking 50 years into the future at all times.
Yes, it’s absolutely possible they go too far and end in a revolution but I don’t see that happening in this century. The overall sentiment in the country (outside metro areas) is a tremendous amount of support for their government.
I have no objection to your claim that Chinese pivot quickly. I saw it when Tesla introduced Gigacasting. Some of the Chinese automakers announced and implemented Gigacasting as quick as possible. Quick turnaround after a new idea is presented probably comes from their long heritage of copying and reverse engineering. We have very few orgs in the US that have this kind of burn the boats thinking. Mostly they are in Silicon Valley with companies like Tesla and Apple(more so during the Jobs era but still true today).
>They have focus, reliably execute, and recover relatively quickly from mistakes and are getting increasingly good at social engineering to enable those things. They are thinking 50 years into the future at all times.
Ok all of this is true but it does not address my main point: they have a fundamental problem that began decades ago and the window has now closed to prevent a massive disaster that could take the "steam out of the economic engine". How are they going to resolve this?
>Yes, it’s absolutely possible they go too far and end in a revolution but I don’t see that happening in this century. The overall sentiment in the country (outside metro areas) is a tremendous amount of support for their government.
I haven't kept up with the lie flat movement but I imagine part of the cause of this massive birth rate problem was in fact 996. Its a sort of silent revolution agains the leadership. Young Chinese crushed with the burden of buying impossibly expensive property, having to care for elders and start a family choose to opt out. Are they going to take the people opted out and put them into camps unless they pop out kids and start spending their life doing innovation? Im sure that will do wonders for fostering innovation.
You know those stories about Soviets getting overwhelmed when they visited US supermarkets? That happens with Americans visiting Chinese downtowns. China will have no trouble outlasting the US unless things change radically.
Demographics are not the problem you think they are; industrial economies no longer rest on the shoulders of burly twentysomething coal miners shoveling sixteen tonnes of coal to get another day older and deeper in debt until blacklung disables them.
>China will have no trouble outlasting the US unless things change radically.
Um my entire point was about an issue that will definitely cause them to lose steam before the US. You provided no rebuttal to my point.
>Demographics are not the problem you think they are; industrial economies no longer rest on the shoulders of burly twentysomething coal miners shoveling sixteen tonnes of coal to get another day older and deeper in debt until blacklung disables them.
They rest on the backs of 20 somethings who are forced to take care of their elderly parents, while popping out 2-3 kids while maintaining impossible million dollar mortgages for a 1 bedroom condo while working 996 style hours. In that regard, I only see nothing but doom and gloom coming.
> A mere month ago these same people were Ukraine's best friends and world's dictators' most hawkish enemies
What Republicans a month ago were UAs best friend? I feel like the simping for Russia has been a consistent stance of MAGA since 2016 -- certainly since the 2022 invasion.
Graham’s opinions and stances on everything are akin to a flag blowing in the wind. As soon as the wind shifts, the flag immediately follows. Granted most politicians are like this but I’d venture to say Graham is one of the most consistent.
Trump has been glazing despots for years, nothing about this is surprising. They were never "the world's dictators' most hawkish enemies", quite the contrary. Why else would russian propaganda be so aligned with MAGA?
The entire point that Zelensky was making to Vance is that every instance of diplomacy Ukraine has had with Russia has been discarded when it's convenient by Russia. Trump wants what looks good on TV, which is a peace deal, but without any plan or security assurances Russia will simply invade again when they rebuild their army.
Ukraine needs to rebuild its army too, and would benefit more relative to Russia from a ceasefire, even if Russia reinvaded. You people are so wildly irrational.
That's just not true, Russia is short on tanks, Ukraine is reaching artillery parity, and Ukraine has a permenant manpower crisis whereas Russia has deep reserves it can pull from for training if given time. Western countries would stop aid flows to Ukraine during a ceasefire while Russia would be free to rearm. A temp. ceasefire would not help Ukraine.
Moreover, why would Ukraine want to negotiate a temp ceasefire? If they can snag security guarantees they have better odds of a long term peace.
Fair and I agree with you, but do you agree that the only ways out of stalemate are ceasefire or west entering the conflict? Are you advocating for the west to enter the conflict?
No, I think the US should negotiate a ceasefire, signal more weapons aid to increase leverage on the peace deal terms, and then find a way to get Europe or the US to signal they will guarantee Ukraine's security. I don't think a transactional deal like the mineral deal is a bad idea, because it gives the US a stake and increases the credibility of their security deal, but Trump does not seem to care about actual lasting peace here.
Coming from the people who spent $2.5 trillion fighting goat herders with ak47s for over 20 years, and lost, that's a good one...
Either way it's not a reason to publicly humiliate Zelensky, to announce he's a dictator, to repeat Russian propaganda talking points, &c.
If your version of peace is to unconditionally accept all of the aggressor's demands, shit on the country being invaded and steal their resources don't be surprised if people don't clap
I think the question most others in Europe are concerned about is "How far west does Russia stop?", and given that they held Berlin only about 35 years ago, and they're openly talking about Paris on state TV, the answer is "they don't, unless we stop them in Ukraine already". That whole perspective makes that question somewhat redundant and too narrow in scope given all the context around it.
This is insanity. You have lost your mind. Europe is covered by a nuclear umbrella and is thus in no danger from Russian invasion.
And you still haven't answered the question, which indicates that you don't see any Ukrainian path to victory - rather your intention is to throw all of Ukraine into the meat grinder in order to make yourself slightly safer from a completely hypothetical Russian invasion, which is profoundly unethical.
Your premise and any assumptions that build on that are invalid.
The Soviet Union and China had a war. When they both had a nuclear umbrella, the Soviet Union having twice as many nuclear weapons as they do now. What else... India and Pakistan? The Korean war? mjfl, here's some news... did you know there's _two_ Koreas? Russia is in other European states right now - Moldova, Georgia. Never mind the hybrid warfare, I feel at best the need to only vaguely point in that direction. Just as much as I'll vaguely point out that that nuclear umbrella just shrunk to a quarter of its previous size. And how can you say "Europe is covered by a nuclear umbrella" when the largest nation by area entirely in Europe is not covered by it.
Can you do us a favour and at least make a list of Wikipedia articles or historical events or entire nations we're supposed to pretend don't exist, including, paradoxically, Russia?
Yes? Any response. I agree with you, let's not glorify meat grinders.
In fact, let's stand diametrically opposed to those who would.
I'll just type 'meat grinder' and 'battle' into Google. Here's the top result: "Battles of Rzhev". Let's go to the Wikipedia page for it and Ctrl-F 'glory'. "[...] Military Glory by the President of Russia Vladimir Putin [...]".
There you go. We should stand diametrically opposed to a certain "President of Russia Vladimir Putin". Gee, I wonder if that's the same guy as the current "President of Russia Vladimir Putin"... do you think?
So... any examples of that Quisling, Vichy, Chamberlain approach - roll over and plead for mercy while exposing your belly - that resulted in a permanent peace in Europe? I mean we want to avoid a meat grinder don't we, so given all that history you'll have plenty of proof that this time, this exact situation, will somehow be magically different.
You can't have elections when you're being invaded or under attack, it's not unprecedented and it's also constitutional. The UK for example didn't have elections from 1939 to 1945 due to WW2.
If part of your population is under occupation, they won't be able to vote how they want, and the rest of your civilian population becomes a target for constant bombardment in order to vote "correctly".
The US is the only western country that doesn't have provisions to suspend elections during wartime. Bully on you, you're awesome. But it doesn't make France, Germany, Canada, the UK, Italy, Spain etc. dictatorships because they don't do exactly what America does.
Summary: While questions have been raised about Ukraine’s democratic process, the country is acting in accordance with its constitution. Parliament overwhelmingly affirmed Zelenskyy’s legitimacy, and under Ukrainian law, elections cannot be held while martial law is in place. Despite the challenges of war, Zelenskyy maintains a 57% approval rating, and his mandate is not disputed by the Ukrainian people or their elected representatives.
So? Why do I have to agree with that assessment? THEY HAVE NOT HAD ELECTIONS. The UK had elections during WWII and so did the U.S. During the U.S. Civil War the Union held elections and Congress met and worked without representation from the Confederacy. There is NO excuse.
Different constitutions are designed differently. Holding an election now would be unconstitutional in Ukraine. Zelensky has offered his resignation in return for security guarantees for Ukraine from NATO or the US.
Watching this situation unfold is very disturbing. And especially disheartening is the behavior of Republican representatives. A mere month ago these same people were Ukraine's best friends and world's dictators' most hawkish enemies and suddenly they are all parroting a completely opposite narrative. I mean, I can understand electing a pathalogical liar. Happened in my country as well. But turns out others were lying too? Suddenly turns out there's no commitment to values, but only a commitment to one man? If this can happen so easily in a 250 years old democracy, is democracy even worth fighting for? Is the Ukrainians' sacrifice worth it?