Fair enough. But doing so 3 years into a war with a now half dead Russia is a different matter. It was the US and UK that took a leadership role in the beginning of the conflict ("for as long as it takes.."). It must be pretty convenient to have a big ocean between yourself and the consequences of your actions.
He believes that Russia's economy is not doing wonderfully, but not nearly as bad as the Western press says it is, and that whoever runs Russia is probably willing to put up with some pain a lot longer than Ukrainians can put up with no power no water no food, etc.
I dont think pain is the possible problem, total collapse is. Russia does everything to hide any pain and problems. Banks are forced to accept loans from soldiers and military adjacent companies while being prohibited from calling them in. The capital controls. The private sector is mostly gone, there is no local car manufacturing any more. 21% interest rates with an official 10% inflation. The increasing lack of official economic data being released...
Hard to tell, and I am not convinced if even the Kremlin has a good overview. In the end it does not matter that much. If Russia is really that robust then they wont stop attacking and if they are bluffing then Ukraine should not stop defending itself.
