> The first signs appeared at the end of 2024. The ruble has weakened, with the Russian currency having lost more than half of its value against the US dollar and the euro, according to a recent analysis by the Kyiv School of Economics. International sanctions on Russian financial institutions played a critical part in this devaluation. In addition, according to the Kyiv School of Economics, Russian oil exports “dropped to $64.40 per barrel” at the end of 2024 (exports were initially $70 per barrel). This suggests that the Russian government is generating less revenue from oil sales.
> Rising inflation is causing concerns in Russia, too. In his annual televised question-and-answer session last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that inflation is a problem and that the Russian economy is “overheating.” He acknowledged that the price of goods has increased, but he attempted to counter this by saying that wages for Russian citizens have also increased. He then concluded that the Russian Central Bank was working to adjust its benchmark to address rising inflation.
> Putin’s points on inflation were telling. The Russian leader seldom discusses problems pertaining to Russian society. Thus, the fact that he felt the need to acknowledge inflation as a serious issue suggests that something greater is afoot. [0]
To further answer your original question, less ideally would be a settlement where the EU and Ukraine are both parties to the negotiation. I am not sure what role the US has at this table, tbh. Full withdrawal from support of Ukraine, and NATO withdrawal appears imminent in any case. A settlement like that might look like:
What Russia gets:
Their territory back in Kursk Oblast
The end of sanctions
A significant portion of Ukrainian territory
What Ukraine gets:
Some contested territory back
All, or nearly all EU held Russian funds for rebuilding the incredible amount of destruction from Russian assault
Permanent stationing of military in Ukraine from a new EU coalition of the willing. (NATO is over, that discussion is pointless)
Yes, their economies health is not the greatest. There are many, to quote that, “concerns”. Concerns and economic growth doesn’t suggest near term collapse.
Can this be tied back to the original comment? I think we agree that a compromise, some level of alignment with Russia, will be required.
What is the clear US alignment with Russia that you see, based on the US compromise? And, what is the compromise? Details of it aren’t
publicly or privately known, since it hasn’t gone that far, and there haven’t been any talks of security promises yet. Is alignment entirely that vote?
> Rising inflation is causing concerns in Russia, too. In his annual televised question-and-answer session last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that inflation is a problem and that the Russian economy is “overheating.” He acknowledged that the price of goods has increased, but he attempted to counter this by saying that wages for Russian citizens have also increased. He then concluded that the Russian Central Bank was working to adjust its benchmark to address rising inflation.
> Putin’s points on inflation were telling. The Russian leader seldom discusses problems pertaining to Russian society. Thus, the fact that he felt the need to acknowledge inflation as a serious issue suggests that something greater is afoot. [0]
To further answer your original question, less ideally would be a settlement where the EU and Ukraine are both parties to the negotiation. I am not sure what role the US has at this table, tbh. Full withdrawal from support of Ukraine, and NATO withdrawal appears imminent in any case. A settlement like that might look like:
What Russia gets:
Their territory back in Kursk Oblast
The end of sanctions
A significant portion of Ukrainian territory
What Ukraine gets:
Some contested territory back
All, or nearly all EU held Russian funds for rebuilding the incredible amount of destruction from Russian assault
Permanent stationing of military in Ukraine from a new EU coalition of the willing. (NATO is over, that discussion is pointless)
[0] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-202...