It's all about the choices. Post secondary schools had easy money (student loans, grants, expanding endowments) and rapidly expanding enrollment for decades. It seems many schools thought that would continue, but we saw enrollment plateau and even decrease. Ivy schools have options - lower prestige to increase enrollment, or lean on prestige and endowments to raise prices. Other schools will likely cut staff/services and increase class sizes. I went to a state school and their enrollment has dropped 25% since I was there. It seems tuition went up, state funding per student is higher (not sure if total is the same or higher), some upgrades were put off, and some services seem to have been scaled back.

> Ivy schools have options - lower prestige to increase enrollment, or lean on prestige and endowments to raise prices.

Ivies aren’t dependent on tuition at all. All have need-blind admissions and most offer full rides to anyone accepted who couldn’t pay otherwise. Penn just updated its income thresholds to provide guaranteed full tuition scholarships to families earning less than 200k a year and budgeted over $300m/year to cover it. These aren’t the box-top Us you’re looking for.

Based on history, ivy schools have substantially increased enrollment to bolster endowment, so it seems that's the track they're taking.

> I felt the 2025 market would get worse but never thought to have "(potential) mass government layoff" on my bingo card.

I'm curious if this is because you never heard about what was in Project 2025, or didn't think Trump would win, or didn't think he would enact it?

I learned from 2016 and didn't discount the idea of Trump winning again. I just didn't think he'd enact it. He'd be blocked by properly smart people who realize across the board that "this will impact my money".

And to be fair some smart people (in the courts) are blocking it. I just didn't think so many illegal actions in the course of a month would escalate this far without. It makes Nixon look like the Dali Lhama.