serious question... How does that not help? The USD is a stable currency because we have f35's and the most powerful military in the world. How does Germany spending over the next 10 years, what we spend a year change that? Our ally is stronger because trump has been pressuring europe to invest more in military, why does that not increase our military capability now that our allies are a bit stronger?

Previously we were spending on US weapons. E.g. F-35 or Patriots. We might phase that out. Your allies might not help you with the next Afghanistan.

Germanies foreign reserves are nearly all treasuries. We might (naturally) diversify away. By taking on a large amount of debt we will simultaneously create an alternative safe asset (bunds).

Who are these allies you speak of?

Serious question?? Of course he doesn't.

of course he does but he doesn't care

what evidence is there?

it would be impossible for someone in his position not to know that. he would have to be shockingly, droolingly stupid to not know that, and I know it's fashionable to say that Trump's stupid, but he quite obviously isn't. he's not Einstein or Attenborough, but you don't get where he is by chance.

what he is is opinionated and narcissistic with a highly unusual, but predictable - and successful - way of operating that people still somehow fail to recognise. if you think he's stupid, he's winning because you're not seeing his real intentions.

I will also point out that he's a political obsessive, including when it comes to foreign policy, and it would be once again quite obviously impossible for someone in his position to not know how US foreign policy works. he quite clearly just doesn't care about losing the benefits of world influence and prefers the long term idea of a different system, one where the US is more self-reliant and his businesses have less competition from foreigners.

obviously most economists will tell you that that is stupid, and I'd mostly agree, but it's a far far softer kind of stupid than not understanding the incredibly basic central tenet of US foreign policy for the last 80 years.

I don’t think he’s stupid. I do think he doesn’t care to know, and remains ignorant.

I ask sincerely, because I would love nothing better: can you point to an interview where he demonstrates any depth or nuance to his foreign policy decisions, that would indicate he pays attention to any of the details we’re discussing?

He’s clearly a political obsessive, but that doesn’t guarantee knowledge. Rather I think he operates on a set of brutish principles that appeal to a certain sets of people.

To your example, it’s easy to espouse a simple idea like isolationism and obsessively work towards it without understanding the finer implications.

>can you point to an interview where he demonstrates any depth or nuance to his foreign policy decisions, that would indicate he pays attention to any of the details we’re discussing?

first of all, I shouldn't have to, because what we're talking about is a surface-level issue that a child could understand, not something deep or nuanced.

but anyway, here's one example: a while ago Trump suggested that there's a chance the US won't support NATO in the case of an invasion of a member state. can you yourself analyse the real intention and actual result of this foreign policy decision?

He has no idea how US foreign policy works. Or any US policy really. Because he frankly doesn't care. People who try to inform him have talked about how difficult it is to get him to pay attention, that it requires cutting it very short and throwing lots of colorful pictures. It's not a secret in Washington. You say he's a political obsessive but he pays more attention to various fox news rants (which are often conspiratorial) then to well sourced briefings.

He's smart at scams and self promotion, anything else he's intellectually lazy about.

He cares a lot about influence at least while he's in charge but he undervalues or ignores soft power and just tries to bully allies.