> Optimistically speaking it could happen as soon as after Nov of 2026 (midterms).
The midterms could have some meaningful effect a lot sooner than that if we start seeing across-the-board primary challenges of pro-Trump Republicans. Of course, all of this is assuming that the broad Republican constituency have to some extent gone anti-Trump, and I really don't know how much basis there is for that assumption.
More likely is that competitive districts flip blue. Republican primary voters don’t seem to be upset. They’re getting what they wanted. It’s independents/undecideds that flip flop every election that could sway back against the GOP after getting tired of democrats in 2024
> all of this is assuming that the broad Republican constituency have to some extent gone anti-Trump, and I really don't know how much basis there is for that assumption.
> Republican primary voters don’t seem to be upset.
I don't think it's really pushing things to say that President Trump is taking actions to destroy democracy in America. Basically he's step by step attacking the institutions that might be able to stand against him or resist him. He attacks judges that rule against him, he attacks congressman on the Republican side if they look like they might go against him. That's anti-democratic
True, but I don't think you're really arguing against what GP and above said. Sure, he's taking those actions, but it's far from clear whether or not he'll succeed. Those judges are so far standing up to him. Even Chief Justice Roberts publicly pushed back, something highly unusual.
The attacks members of Congress are troubling, but in a way don't matter too much: the deciders for control of the Senate or House are swing voters in swing states and districts. Whether or not the Republicans in Congress are MAGA adherents or older-school reasonable Republicans matters less than you'd think (and less than I'd like).
The one wrinkle in that is the Senate filibuster: if Democrats regain control there, depending on their margin, they could need up to 10 reasonable Republicans in order to make progress on most things. 60 Democratic Senators is unlikely.
Trump was elected by the whole US population. Why does a judge, who was not elected by the entire US population, is able to block the democratically elected president? To me, it sounds like the judges are the ones "destroying democracy" as they are blocking the will of the people.
What has Trump done to take away votes from people? Every election is still happening. US citizens are still able to vote.
Our balance of powers works that way, it's not a novel concept that was just invented. The president does not have some special power because he won the electoral college election, majority of voters, plurality or whatever. He still has to follow the rule of law, he still has to obey court orders. If the president does some action that a federal judge rules was illegal, then they can stop it. This is completely ordinary and every president faces this, Biden, Trump 1, Bush2, Reagan etc.
> all of this is assuming that the broad Republican constituency have to some extent gone anti-Trump, and I really don't know how much basis there is for that assumption.
Seems to be absolutely no basis for that assumption. His approval ratings are in the mid 40s, and the people that vote in primaries aren't exactly the waverers and independents that just wanted a change from Biden.
It could change when he properly tanks the economy, but association with Trump isn't likely to be a problem in primaries when you've got more than half a party's membership so immune to reality they'll insist that not only was Trump doing a good job of running the country in 2020, but he also won that election...
If Trump is on a path to tank the economy, the asset markets will react immediately to that prediction and everyone will know it. This may well be the most tightly binding constraint on Trump and Musk's actual behavior right now. Right now markets are doing worse than was predicted after the election but they're not that terrible. This seems to predict that Trump will muddle through somehow, as the most likely outcome.
The midterms could have some meaningful effect a lot sooner than that if we start seeing across-the-board primary challenges of pro-Trump Republicans. Of course, all of this is assuming that the broad Republican constituency have to some extent gone anti-Trump, and I really don't know how much basis there is for that assumption.