The problem is the accident distribution is really skewed, with a small fraction of drivers contributing most accidents. That means the majority drive a lot better than average, and would likely not put up with a regression in accident rates from what might be a "better than average" system but still not as good as human. I know I wouldn't, I pay attention, never had an accident in 30 years, tried a few FSD implementations including Tesla's and they scared the bejesus out of me.
>The problem is the accident distribution is really skewed, with a small fraction of drivers contributing most accidents.
Even if you take this at face value:
1. such "dangerous" drivers still screw over "safe", by crashing into them. Unless you're willing to take them off the road entirely, you can't invoke "the majority drives better than average" and call it a day. At least in the US, doing this is a non-starter.
2. Driverless systems aren't slightly safer than the average driver, they're significantly safer. For instance waymo claims "81% fewer injury-causing crashes". This effect alone might swamp out the "majority drive a lot better than average" phenomena you talk about. Most drivers might be safer than average, but are they 5x safer than average?
> Driverless systems aren't slightly safer than the average driver, they're significantly safer.
Waymo operates an extremely conservative system that uses human oversight, roof mounted LIDAR, 100% 3D mapped environment in a very limited deployment, etc. This isn't robust to demonstrate Tesla or other self-driving situation, often using just a couple of cameras and a 2D map of roadways.
Tesla has boasted about the value of their system, using the classic per mile argument to justify its advantages. Only the overwhelming bulk of Tesla FSD or autopilot miles are on highways, which statistically is much safer than any other form of auto transport. This number is then compared against the drunk on the unlit country road type grab bag of every other style of driving and declared the victor. And of course even for highway accidents, aside from extreme weather events accidents are often people who purposefully wouldn't be using any assists -- stunt driving and the like.
It all seems very dubious right now. I believe Waymo's stats, I don't remotely believe Tesla's. We'll see what happens as people start using it more in normal driving situations.
> At least in the US, doing this is a non-starter.
So far, anyway. I wonder if legislation could move in that direction tho? For example, if you have multiple drunk driving offenses or are convicted of reckless driving they take your license away for a time.
