Thanks for linking to the parliamentary trade data! I think we both agree that's useful data on which to have a discussion.
Since you were so kind as to "do the work" for me, I'll also "do the work" for you (LOL!):
● From the text and tables in 3.1 (text from the report included below) I take it we both come to the same conclusion that post-Brexit the EU has lost ~£40 billion in export trade?
● To be clear how I'm getting that number -- NET LOSS in Exports for 2023 vs values cited for period 2017-2019: ~£20 billion to EU + ~£20 billion non EU
Is £40 billion a little or a lot? From the text below that seems to be about a 10% hit on exports.
How much is attributable to Brexit vs other factors (e.g. impact of COVID) really is the ___domain of forecasting and analysis, which you seem uncomfortable with. So perhaps we'll leave it there. EDIT: For readers who are interested in the performance of forecasting models, the OBR includes an analysis of the performance of their models here: https://obr.uk/box/how-are-our-brexit-trade-forecast-assumpt...
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From the Parliamentary report "Statistics on UK trade with the EU":
> UK goods exports to the EU have not recovered to pre-Brexit levels. Goods exports to the EU exceeded £170 billion in 2017, 2018 and 2019 but have not done so in any calendar year since and were £153 billion in 2023 (see table below).
> It is worth noting that UK exports of goods to the EU were growing quite slowly before Brexit and the pandemic, being only 9% higher in 2019 than 2010 in real terms
> Goods exports to non-EU countries also remain below pre-Brexit levels. These exceeded £180 billion in 2017, 2018 and 2019 but have been below £170 billion in every calendar year since then. They were £162 billion in 2023.
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EDITS: added some clarification re: source of export values; wording of text.
We seem to have reached the maximum thread depth, which is probably a strong hint to us to end this discussion. We're way off topic anyhow as this thread is about the impact of current US tariffs.
But to your last comment, post-Brexit the UK is pretty significantly under-performing the rest of the G7 in terms of goods trades (prior to Brexit the UK seemed to mirror the G7 average).
Sure. I think we both agree at least that the UK isn't suffering some kind of crisis, doesn't have plunging GDP etc, which is where this sub-thread started.
We can tell there is no impact of Brexit because UK exports fell to both EU and non-EU countries by about the same amount, probably due to COVID impact. They would need to diverge for there to have been an impact of Brexit specifically. This doesn't require forecasting to see, you can look at the graph and see that there's been no divergence.
Since you were so kind as to "do the work" for me, I'll also "do the work" for you (LOL!):
● From the text and tables in 3.1 (text from the report included below) I take it we both come to the same conclusion that post-Brexit the EU has lost ~£40 billion in export trade?
● To be clear how I'm getting that number -- NET LOSS in Exports for 2023 vs values cited for period 2017-2019: ~£20 billion to EU + ~£20 billion non EU
Is £40 billion a little or a lot? From the text below that seems to be about a 10% hit on exports.
How much is attributable to Brexit vs other factors (e.g. impact of COVID) really is the ___domain of forecasting and analysis, which you seem uncomfortable with. So perhaps we'll leave it there. EDIT: For readers who are interested in the performance of forecasting models, the OBR includes an analysis of the performance of their models here: https://obr.uk/box/how-are-our-brexit-trade-forecast-assumpt...
--
From the Parliamentary report "Statistics on UK trade with the EU":
> UK goods exports to the EU have not recovered to pre-Brexit levels. Goods exports to the EU exceeded £170 billion in 2017, 2018 and 2019 but have not done so in any calendar year since and were £153 billion in 2023 (see table below).
> It is worth noting that UK exports of goods to the EU were growing quite slowly before Brexit and the pandemic, being only 9% higher in 2019 than 2010 in real terms
> Goods exports to non-EU countries also remain below pre-Brexit levels. These exceeded £180 billion in 2017, 2018 and 2019 but have been below £170 billion in every calendar year since then. They were £162 billion in 2023.
--
EDITS: added some clarification re: source of export values; wording of text.