At this point, I do wonder if long-dated (2-3 months) American-style Puts are a good idea.
The weirdness of this administration has created a lot of volatility. With American-style options you are allowed to exercise early, so if you think there's going to be a ton of ups and downs in the next few months, I wonder if this could be lucrative.
I might try this just as an experiment with one of the cheaper options.
Exercising early only makes sense in some pathological examples that do occur but practically never happen. In general, very loosely, a put is worth something for the hedge plus the amount you could get for exercising it right now. Thus, if you want to exercise it right now, you just sell it and get the hedge premium.
Also, the current VIX is the same as January of 2020. If you believe the current state of the world is less certain than the outbreak of a global pandemic, I have some options to sell you.
Yeah, misspoke, I meant selling the option, not exercising.
> Also, the current VIX is the same as January of 2020. If you believe the current state of the world is less certain than the outbreak of a global pandemic, I have some options to sell you.
I don't know if it's more volatile, BUT it it has shot way up since yesterday, and it doesn't seem too weird to think that it will go down to the numbers we had yesterday.
The weirdness of this administration has created a lot of volatility. With American-style options you are allowed to exercise early, so if you think there's going to be a ton of ups and downs in the next few months, I wonder if this could be lucrative.
I might try this just as an experiment with one of the cheaper options.