Is it? China unlike US has a declining population. Also it takes a while to catch up even if you’re growing at 5% and your opponent at 3% when the starting base is much lower.

Of course this might be entirely moot since US is in the process of committing economic suicide for no apparent reason.

I think its going to happen. We keep underestimating China. US manufacturing is in the gutter. And it certainly doesn't help that we keep deporting our best minds back to China. They already have 5x the US population. They have a lot of room to grow still.

> US manufacturing is in the gutter

That had little effect on GDP growth, though.

It’s not like the gap has been narrowed that much in the last 15 years:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?___location...

It’s not that long until China’s demographic issues will start having a huge impact.

Unless something significant changes it’s not inconceivable if China never catches up.

Obviously such longterm projections are semi meaningless but China will likely have less than 500 million people by the end of the century.