The best case scenario is that governments make agreements to accept more US exports, the trade war ends, and in a couple years conventional wisdom remembers this entire episode as a cautionary tale about crazy policies countries sometimes pursue when their trade balance gets too out of whack.

Is that the most likely resolution? No, I don’t think so, I’m still holding most of my money out of the stock market. But doing lots of business with countries whose current government isn’t trustworthy isn’t an unheard of scenario.