Further, if a student can get a diploma without work, then the diploma does not have value anymore. If diplomas are no longer valuable, the signal they provide in the labor market will turn into noise.
If employers no longer look for the diploma-signal in an employee, what will be the reason an employer will hire an employee?
I think this story will become true, and society will radically shift into one where critical thinking skills will actually be the only skills employers look for in employees, since the grunt work can be automated.
What becomes the signal then? Will we shift back into apprenticeship based employment? How do potential laborers display their critical thinking skills apart from displaying them in person?
In a medieval guild, to be admitted as a master, an apprentice had to create a chef d'oevre, or masterpiece, so called for this reason.
In the computer engineering industry, you increasingly have to demonstrate the same: either as a part of your prior work for hire, or a side project, or a contribution to something open-source.
A diploma is still a useful signal, but not sufficient, except maybe for very junior positions straight from college. These are exactly the positions most under pressure by the automation.
I might be a good thing. Colleges have become complacent and too expensive. Costs of an education have been increasing while employment opportunities decreasing for some degree categories. People have been sounding alarms for a while and colleges have not been listening. The student loan market is booming.
Now if students can shortcut the education process, they can spend less time in it and this may force colleges to reinvent themselves and actually rethink what education looks like in the new era.
What becomes the signal then? Will we shift back into apprenticeship based employment? How do potential laborers display their critical thinking skills apart from displaying them in person?
This is already true to some extend. Not apprenticeship taking place of college, but the last couple of places I worked hiring generally happened based on: I already know this person from open source projects/working with them in a company/etc.
In certain companies, degrees were already unimportant even before LLMs because they generally do not provide a very good signal.
Honestly, a future where diplomas are just noise and employers stop caring about them and thus young people stop wasting years of their lives "learning" something they don't care about sounds like a huge improvement.
LLM cheaters might incidentally be doing society a service.
They will only learn what's needed to "get the job done" for whatever it means at that moment, and we could potentially see more erosion in technical abilities and work quality. You don't know what you don't know, and without learning things that you don't care about, you loose the chance to expand your knowledge outside of your comfort zone.
> They will only learn what's needed to "get the job done" for whatever it means at that moment
I graduated university around the turn of the century, long before the current AI boom started, and the majority of my classmates were like that. Learning the bare minimum to escape a class isn't new especially if you're only taking that class because you have to because every adult in your life drilled into you that you'll be a homeless failure if you don't go to college and get a degree. The LLMs make that easier, but the university, if the goal wasn't just to take your tuition dollars to enrich a vast administrator class instead of cover the costs of employing the professors teaching you, could offset that with more rigorous testing or oral exams at the end of the class.
The real lesson I learned during my time in university is that the two real edges that elite universities give you (as a student) are 1) social connections to the children of the rich and leaders in the field that you can mine for recommendations and 2) a "wow" factor on your resume. You can't really get the first at a state school or community college, and you definitely can't get the second at a state school or community college, despite learning similar if not the same material in a given field of study.
It hasn't been about (just) the learning for a long time.
I don't think diplomas have mattered for decades, at least in tech. Let's not pretend anything improved with the introduction of chatbots.
Annyway, any advantage is entirely offset by having to live in a world with LLMs. I'd prefer the tradition of having to educate retarded college graduates. At least they grow into retarded adults. What are we gonna do about chatbots? You can't even educate them, let alone pinocchio them.
> If students find a way to get a diploma without doing the work, it will soon be worth less than the paper on which it is printed.
Amen.
I look forward to the era where we train professionals the old fashion way: apprenticeships. It sure worked for blacksmiths and artisans for hundreds of years.
That is how many professionals are training in many European countries, and they still want a diploma to go with it.
In many countries, regardless of how learning it was achieved, you still need a paper to prove that you actually did it.
And in countries like Germany, better keep all those job evaluations close at heart because they get asked for as part of many job interview processes, additionally have them reviewed by lawyers, as they legally can't say anything negative, there is an hidden language on how to express negativity which to the reader sound positive on first read.
Techbically even those hidden phrases arent permitted by law, and you have the right to get those phrases removed/have it be turned into a basic evaluation (just from when to when + what job)
The employers that do use those hidden phrases just hope they arent challenged/the employee doesnt notice.
Thats also why most evaluations are entirely written in the superlative.
Unfortunely they are common enough to keep lawyers and book publishing businesses going with dictionaries "evaluation => real meaning", exactly for that little help to go though it and validate its correctness.
Many employeers profit from foreigners that aren't well versed in these nuances, and have to be educated this is a thing.
An example for others not used to German work market,
"Missing" information is a huge red flag as well, though. If an Arbeitszeugnis only lists the dates and what the person worked on, and nothing about results or behavior, we would never invite them for an interview.
PhDs are apprenticeships. Students perform original research under the supervision of a doctoral advisor, and submit their work to a "guild" of external reviewers (peer reviewed journals or conferences). Once the student has three peer-reviewed publications, they graduate.
An apprentice, after five years of work, can be a master, just by practcising.
That's why the universities of Oxford and Cambridge give Master's degree to everyone that gets a Bachelor's degree after five years, without further examination or coursework (note that these are MAs only, not MRes, MPhil or MBA degrees, which typically require 1-2 years of studies, exams and theses).
Historically, the academic Master was seen as equivalent to a Master in a craft (e.g. philosophy <=> carpentry).
> It has value because a student can only get it by learning and problem-solving.
No. That's how it should be, but the reality looks different: it has value because it shows that someone spent 3+ years doing what they were told to do, enduring all the absurdities they were subjected to in the meantime. Whatever means they used to cheat don't matter, since they still worked on what someone told them to and produced results satisfying the expectations.
There are, perhaps, institutions where learning and problem-solving are seen as the most important while "following orders" and "staying in line" are deemphasized. For the students of all the others, putting up with an utterly absurd environment is often one of the biggest barriers to learning. Yet, it's a requirement without fulfilling which you can forget about graduating. Hence my conclusion: the diploma from most learning institutions certifies you as a good corporate drone - and that's enough of a signal in many situations, so why bother trying to fix it?
I hire people now and where they went to school means little to me. The first priority is “can they do the work?” which is a niche programming. After that is established, I barely take note of school.
I don’t personally count a CS degree as an indication the person is a good programmer, or thinks logically, or has good work ethic.
Problem is you most likely don’t have that big operation.
For company I work for we hire 1 dev per year and I believe last year we did not even hire a single person.
So I do have time to check up the candidate do 3 rounds each 1 hr so that candidates can see what company are we and what person is the candidate. We also are small company so we don’t get that many applicants anyway.
I cannot imagine how it goes when someone needs to hire 20 devs in one quarter. Especially for a company that is any way known and they can get 1000CVs for a single position. They need to filter somehow.
HR seems a lot like real estate appraisal as~in appraisers know nothing about construction.
One could in theory establish the value of a thing or person by comparing it with similar things but if everyone does that the process becomes senseless.
If a working car is worth 5000, the same car from the same year with a defect that costs 1000 to fix should be worth 4000. If the repair costs 6000 there is no car.
> It has value because a student can only get it by learning and problem-solving.
No. It has value, because companies value it. It sets the starting point for your first salary and then for every salary negotiation moving forward.
As someone who did not go to university, but has the same knowledge self-taught I can tell you that this piece of paper would have opened so many doors and made life so much easier. It took me 15 years to get a salary, that people get with the piece of paper after graduating. And not because it took me 15 years to reach that level of knowledge. I had that by the time the other graduated.
I had a friend who always cheated in school, and now he works for a big car company and earned a fuck ton of money.
Life is unfair and companies only care about the paper your diploma is printed on. If students would ask me for advice, I would tell them to cheat whenever possible.
You forgot one big reward with your approach. You are not 200k in debt which will take that kid with diploma to get that piece of paper. You are debt free.
I am not arguing on the merit of having a diploma is a bad thing - the colleges these days have turned their backs on the people as well.
Average $100k to get a piece of paper (LLMs are not the issue here the useless degrees that the colleges offer). Invest that $100k at an average 15% return - it becomes a lot of money 25 years from now.
Or get a piece of paper (if your major is useless) and pay the banks 100k + interest.
That’s a very American point of view though. In many European countries people don’t build up such big debts. I’m from NL and the upper bound among my friends was something like 50,000, but most people had much lower debts between 0 and 20,000. (Yay for lower enrollment fees + part of the money is given as a gift).
And even if you ramped up a 50k debt, it’s a government loan where the interest rates are low, your monthly pay off is based on your salary, and if you are not able to pay the debt within a certain period, it’s wiped away.
I really think that they are used because it is easiest and cheapest fully legal filter. When you have significant number of candidates any filter that comes first to mind is selected. Degree is one such one that won't ever legally bite you.
In reality, holding a piece of paper has nothing in common with relevant ability. Some graduates will exit university as competent people, some won't.
This isn't exactly news, or even a recent phenomenon. My peers who finished their CS degree circa 2004 ish were a broad mix of utter idiots who shouldn't get a job in that field, or damn sharp (if green) technically-minded people, or somewhere in between.
The industry will sort them out; the ones that can, do, the ones that can't, will do something else of use, or find another job.
There is a correlation, that is all you need for it to be valuable. Remove the correlation and value isn't there any more, see US masters in computer science for example that one doesn't correlate with skill so it isn't valued, but the bachelor is. In countries where a masters is correlated with skill they are values though.
And that won't be their problem, they'll be long gone having achieved what they wanted when they were cheating. It is a societal problem or institutional and industry problem. If the market and these universities want these degrees to mean anything as signaling mechanism they must stop these students from cheating some way somehow...the students are never going to stop themselves.
If students find a way to get a diploma without doing the work, it will soon be worth less than the paper on which it is printed.