In the long run what is going to hurt SQL server is the fact that it is on Windows only. And if you look at the technology trends for databases - big/midsize IT shops are gravitating towards integrated solutions(Exadata e.g) where Microsoft still relies on third party for hardware. Small shops/startups are gravitating towards commodity hardware(primarily linux based), where trend is more towards MySQL/Postgre/NoSQL, where Microsoft is lacking. And then the cloud (where Microsoft does have an early presence, but then Amazon has been there long before and Oracle is there in too)....In that context this In-Memory database technology tussle is playing out, which was clearly ignited by SAPs Hana (even though oracle had times-ten long before SAP came out with Hana). So looking at future market direction, things are not looking very good for SQL server, even though it is probably one of the best products to come out of Microsoft and currently is doing great.