If you've been in Silicon Valley for the past 6 months, this was obviously going to happen -- virtually everyone I know who could afford virtually any production supercar, and cares about cars, has or wants a Tesla. Not an R8, not a GTR, not a California, not a Panamera, not an M3, but a Tesla. As they ramp up their production (I think it's down to a few months wait),
The only rich people (who own cars) not getting Teslas seem to be either totally non-car people (or just cheap on capital costs vs. cost-efficient on total costs), or those who live in the City without a garage parking spot. Solving the Tesla street parking charging issue would be the next big win -- you could probably get away with 480v supercharging at work for 2-6h/day and street parking at home, although weekends might be tough.
Most of the people who can afford 100k cars (and/or who would be willing to buy 100k cars) live in SF, LA, NY, Boston, DC, etc. now. A better argument is that the total number of cars sold in those markets is like 1-2mm out of the 10mm US market, but even if Tesla just becomes Audi, that's pretty successful.
Another thing about high cost of living in places like that is maybe you're willing to spend 10% as much on a car as on a house. In Palo Alto that means you can buy two new loaded Teslas to go with your 2BR/1BA cottage; in the midwest, one used Toyota to go with a 4BR/3BA house on 5 acres.
(and Elon Musk's counterargument to all of this is that he's working on a 30-50k car next. I'm sure he'll deliver. The segment they're neglecting is the truck/commercial market -- there probably is an opportunity for someone (Textron? they make the new EV UPS/Fedex trucks) to make an awesome commercial EV platform, maybe with a CNG or LNG generator onboard. Whoever replaces with pickup truck and light commercial truck will have a next-Ford sized business, too)
I'm in NY and I've seen very few Teslas. I'm guessing the three biggest reasons why are the small amount of fueling stations compared to California, the controversial NYT review and just simply trusting what you're used to instead of living off the bleeding edge.
I think the bigger problem is that most people don't own cars in NY since they don't really need them and they're a pain to park unless you're paying for a parking spot. Even then that parking spot may not provide the ability to charge your car.
I suspect that if more people in NYC had garages in their owns we'd be seeing more Teslas.
I've seen far more Ferraris out on the road than Teslas and they cost, at least, twice as much. This is not including vehicles that are similarly priced to even the Tesla Roadster which only increases that ratio.
I'd include Long Island (which do have traditional homes and garages) in this as well where I've never seen one on the road.
I think there are issues that exist beyond what you mentioned.
So you think it's just cultural differences between the West and East Coast? That's possible. I'm in the tech scene in NYC so I may have a lot more in common with the West Coast culture than the one here.
I have spoken with a few of my non-tech friends about Tesla and they're all pretty bearish on it so maybe you're right. What do non-tech people on the West Coast thing about it?
I think girls are more interested in "green" issues in SF than on the east coast, so if you are a rich guy buying a car to help with the mating game, a Tesla might be a better choice out here. It is also a $100k car you can buy to claim to be forward thinking on tech and the environment, rather than just flaunting wealth (which is discouraged here).
New York (City) is, quite simply, a very different market than California. Most people who park on the street want a car they are comfortable taking a lot of damage on (and can't charge the car), and most garages in NYC are very old, very tightly packed (by valets that move the cars around often), and unlikely to have electrical charging stations.
Moreover, many cars are mostly used for weekend road trips, when range is a paramount concern.
Echo chamber, indeed. There are over 200 million cars in the USA vs fewer than 20 thousand Teslas. The Teslas are newer, so less likely to be kept in garages, but because of their range they also are less likely to be on the road for 10 hours a day.
So, I would expect that, on average, on the order of 1:10,000 cars on the road would be a Tesla.
If people say way more of them in California, there must be spots where people see fewer.
I'm a huge Tesla fan, but you are definitely in an echo chamber out in SV. Tesla has a huge tech/geek appeal. I know plenty of non-tech rich people from other places who would still much rather have their Mercedes or Bentley.
I'm a huge Apple fan, but you are definitely in an echo chamber out in SV. Apple has huge tech/geek appeal. I know plenty of non-tech rich people from other places who would still much rather have Windows and Blackberries.
I suspect some of this has to do with the newness and perceived scarcity. Once everyone who can afford a production supercar owns a Tesla, demand will fall back a bit.
I live in San Francisco, I rent a small apartment in a fairly nice neighborhood. Without fail, every night parked on the street are 2 Audi S5s[1], a Tesla Model S[2], an E63 AMG Wagon[3], and a smattering of Porsches (new Boxters to oldish 911's).
Surprisingly it usually works out fine to park a totally empty $100k car on the street in SF, but if you leave $0.25 on the seat of a $500 toyota, some crackhead homeless fucker will break your window ($100-300 to fix it) to steal it.
Back when YC had demo days at YC's office, rather than at a nearby museum with a parking lot, there were a lot of amazing cars street parked for blocks. And at least one highly lulzy incident involving an SL65 and an asshole machinist dragging it with a forklift into the middle of a street.
The only rich people (who own cars) not getting Teslas seem to be either totally non-car people (or just cheap on capital costs vs. cost-efficient on total costs), or those who live in the City without a garage parking spot. Solving the Tesla street parking charging issue would be the next big win -- you could probably get away with 480v supercharging at work for 2-6h/day and street parking at home, although weekends might be tough.