I agree with your estimation. It would still be very meaningful to give it to Manning/Snowden though. This is for the simple reason that it was given to Obama before and Obama validated the prize by attending the ceremony and giving a lecture in Oslo.
The foundation made a big mistake by giving it to somebody who did nothing but win an election campaign. Giving it to Manning/Snowden would allow them to claw back some credibility as a progressive non-political organisation. It would also implicitly indicate to the world that they made a big mistake in 2009, it would take an organisation with strong character to make that decision.
The foundation made a big mistake by giving it to somebody who did nothing but win an election campaign. Giving it to Manning/Snowden would allow them to claw back some credibility as a progressive non-political organisation. It would also implicitly indicate to the world that they made a big mistake in 2009, it would take an organisation with strong character to make that decision.