Refusal of the EU bloc to cooperate over sharing banking and passenger data, and potentially other treaties down the line
Refusal of large South American nations to do trade deals or negotiate with the US, and a decline in US influence in the region
A move away from American dominance of the internet, and a reluctance to use companies with servers based in based in the US
The decline of the American empire, which is based on the tacit consent of the nations within their alliances like NATO (this one is more a long term potential outcome).
Sharing of banking and passenger data is not something I know a lot about. Why do countries share this data now, and why would they stop because their prime minister is being spied upon? How the spying affect the pros and cons of sharing the data?
> Refusal of large South American nations to do trade deals...
Can you explain why a South American nation would not make a trade deal that made sense economically because of foreign espionage? How do the economics change as a result of the espionage?
> A move away from American dominance of the internet...
Who would avoid using servers based in the US as a result of espionage of 35 specific foreign officials? We're not talking about normal EU citizens in this particular article.
>The decline of the American empire...
Again, what decisions will countries make differently? Are countries going to make decisions that are not in their best interests in order to spite the US? Or are they already making decisions that are not in their best interests in order to be nice to the US, but won't anymore? Neither of these seems likely.
Well clearly these are partly predictions and speculation, but I do expect to see, and we have already seen, concrete repercussions from the exposure of spying on allies, because the actions of the US state have put its interests in clear conflict with those of its allies.
The excuse given for sharing banking and passenger data was fighting terrorism; as that's been shown to be far from the truth by these latest revelations, the EU parliament recently voted against sharing SWIFT data:
Can you explain why a South American nation would not make a trade deal that made sense economically because of foreign espionage? How do the economics change as a result of the espionage?
These decisions are not made on a purely economic basis. Rousseff cancelled a trade visit as a result of US spying:
From the article:
Brazil is one of the wealthiest and most powerful countries in Latin America, so Rousseff's decision to postpone her visit - and her obvious anger at the U.S. -- has potentially far-reaching implications for Washington's standing and influence in the region. It is extremely rare for a head of state to call off an already-scheduled state visit, so the move is also a profound embarrassment for the administration.
The administration tried to spin this in the US as a joint decision, but this was a significant snub (along with her damning UN speech) from the largest country in the region and a huge setback for US influence in SA.
Who would avoid using servers based in the US as a result of espionage of 35 specific foreign officials?
The officials certainly have an incentive to move (in a way they didn't when they believed US gov assurances and thought only the little people were being spied on), and they may move the massive EU gov market away from any dependence on American owned servers. South American government have discussed doing the same (including Brazil, the biggest country). This will impact US internet companies long term, and I suspect just encourage an already emerging globalisation of the internet.
Are countries going to make decisions that are not in their best interests in order to spite the US?
It has been fully exposed just how little respect and rewards being a US ally earns you, and therefore a lot of countries will rethink the relationship. This has nothing to do with spiting the US and everything to do with protecting their own interests, which are less and less seen as congruent with the US due to its bullying behaviour.
Refusal of the EU bloc to cooperate over sharing banking and passenger data, and potentially other treaties down the line
Refusal of large South American nations to do trade deals or negotiate with the US, and a decline in US influence in the region
A move away from American dominance of the internet, and a reluctance to use companies with servers based in based in the US
The decline of the American empire, which is based on the tacit consent of the nations within their alliances like NATO (this one is more a long term potential outcome).