a one out of a thousand chance at making a million bucks has a 'fundamental value' of $1000.
The problem with valuing tesla is not that it lacks 'fundamental value' - it's not even that this value is risky. The problem is that nobody knows /how/ risky that bet is.
Of course... once the uncertainty passes a certain point... it sure looks like it's completely disconnected from 'fundamental value'
Personally? I can see the 'fundamental value' in Tesla. They are building a new kind of car, and it looks like a pretty nice car. I mean, I'm not really qualified to evaluate those things, I'm not really the sort who buys expensive cars.
Now, is that value greater than the huge investment required to build those cars? Will Tesla be able to scale up to the point where they are turning a reasonable profit? Will they be able to defend their initial lead against the conventional car companies, once toyota starts making an all-electric Lexus? Yeah. Lots of very difficult to quantify risk.
I'd buy Tesla before I'd buy Facebook. Long before I'd buy facebook. But I don't have money in either.
Of all the new technology companies... my perception is that Tesla has rather more 'fundamental value.' If nothing else, they are one of the very few companies that doesn't rely for revenue on a relatively new kind of advertising.
The problem with valuing tesla is not that it lacks 'fundamental value' - it's not even that this value is risky. The problem is that nobody knows /how/ risky that bet is.
Of course... once the uncertainty passes a certain point... it sure looks like it's completely disconnected from 'fundamental value'
Personally? I can see the 'fundamental value' in Tesla. They are building a new kind of car, and it looks like a pretty nice car. I mean, I'm not really qualified to evaluate those things, I'm not really the sort who buys expensive cars.
Now, is that value greater than the huge investment required to build those cars? Will Tesla be able to scale up to the point where they are turning a reasonable profit? Will they be able to defend their initial lead against the conventional car companies, once toyota starts making an all-electric Lexus? Yeah. Lots of very difficult to quantify risk.
I'd buy Tesla before I'd buy Facebook. Long before I'd buy facebook. But I don't have money in either.