Hacker News new | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit login

Actually, Taleb has explicitly stated that the 2008 financial crisis was not a Black Swan nor does he claim to be able to predict any of them.



In fact, most of Taleb's ideas are about how to not rely on predictions of events that are unpredictable - so faulting him for predicting or not predicting this and that means one does not really understands what Taleb is talking about.


Yes, his Black Swan stuff is a completely separate issue from whether he has or hasn't predicted anything.


Fascinating, but how is that at all relevant? I didn't call 2008 a black swan, I called Black Monday in 1987 a "Black Swan", using Taleb's own descriptor for it. So what is the issue?

A different discussion concerns the fact that Taleb's possible luck in 1987 makes him a prescient seer for things like the financial crisis. But he isn't, and a tremendous number of things he has said have simply been wrong (most notably, and importantly, everything he said about government intervention. He was 100% wrong in every way).

People ask why people get the heckles up about Taleb, and it isn't actually about Taleb at all. It's about the, for lack of a better phrase, Taleb "fan boys". Bizarre that such a thing exists, but people like having their prophet.


Your post was in reply to someone asking about Taleb's Black Swans so I assumed you were talking about 2008 in reference to that.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: