We can believe people like Elon Musk will be the ones guiding humanity towards space conquest, not state programs.
We need both. The deep space research that's only possible with $1e9-$1e10 budgets has to precede scaling up and commercialization. Furthermore, there's little commercial incentive, even for people like Elon Musk, to invest in basic science research like Hubble, JWST, the LHC, etc.
You can believe that if you like, but I'm sure he'd be the first to admit that his success is only possible thanks to the advances made in the Space Race, which was of course state funded.
Playing Devil's advocate, the state just got there first; we can make suppositions, but it's now impossible to know if non-governmental entities could make such advances, since they're already made.
We can believe people like Elon Musk will be the ones guiding humanity towards space conquest, not state programs.