somehow the current scuffle between uber and regular cabs seems to miss the joke. we're going to need a plan for the eventual unemployment of a lot of cab drivers, regardless of how the cab is hailed.
Someone proposed some food for thought a little while ago that intrigued me. One day in the not too distant future it'd be completely reasonable for cabs to drive themselves and automatically accept payment via bitcoin or some other digital currency. It'd also be reasonable for them to refill their fuel tanks when empty, paying with the money they received, and additionally go into the shop whenever their diagnostics detect an issue.
At this point, they may not be self aware, but they are completely autonomous, capable of making their own living wages, and can look after their own well-being.
It will be something like a merger of traditional cab services and modern car-sharing services like https://www.car2go.com/
Most of those car-sharing services are owned directly by the large car companies like BMW or Mercedes. It's very likely that they'll eventually just become big cab services with self-driving cars in addition to just producing them.
And the number of people who actually need to own their own car will shrink every year.
Even New York City seems to only have tens of thousands of cab drivers ('seems' because I just looked at wikipedia for a minute), I don't think they are that big a percentage of the population.
My step-dad was a NYC cab driver. It's true that they're a small percentage of the population, but that's not the right way to think about it. In NYC (and other US cities as well I believe) to become a cab driver requires buying a Medallion, which is a license to operate a cab. They cost a LOT of money, roughly the same as a small NYC condominium. My step-dad's cost a couple hundred thousand dollars many years ago, and Wikipedia[1] says they can cost over $700k today. They used to be mostly individually owned, but today, because of the expense, they're mostly owned by fleet operators.
The individual owners of these medallions are small business owners, and those who operate cab fleets are large business owners who employ many drivers. Automated vehicles aren't just going to put some people who drive out of work; they're going to eliminate an industry and destroy investments in a lot of businesses.
Or, maybe not. The TLC (Taxi and Limousine Commission) in NYC is a powerful lobbying group. They'll probably fight to prevent automated taxis in NYC until they're proven, without a doubt, to be safer than experienced taxi drivers. Then, they'll fight to ensure that an automated taxi requires a medallion just like any other taxi. Very few new medallions are issued each year, so the onus will be on the existing taxi owners to convert their cars into automated cars. That's probably a good deal for the individual owners, since they're usually either the drivers as well or they're paying a driver (or both, to keep the taxi on the road as much as possible.) Automation will get them out of the drivers seat, while still preserving their investment. But this is a bad deal for the regular drivers who aren't owners; they'll either be out of work, or maybe paid (less) to sit and ride along until passengers get used to the automated cars.
There are several million truckers in the U.S., so it's somewhere around 1% (but it's probably less than 2%).
I guess there are probably lots of delivery drivers, but those vehicles will still need tenders (at least until robots can do the last 100 feet of the delivery).
The "issue" is probably not for the general workforce, but it will significantly reduce the number of not-so-qualified jobs. According to a quick googling "1 in 15 worker in a long truck driver according to the ATA" [1]. But this is expected that automation tend to reduce these kind of jobs first.
Your link says that 1 in 15 workers is employed in the trucking industry. It says there are 3.5 million truck drivers, which is consistent enough with my 1%.
I'm sure it will create lots of turmoil if truckers are put out of work. But there is already an enormous amount of turmoil in the employment market (for lots of reasons). Especially in the part of the employment market that truckers participate in.
I don't understand why subways and trains aren't implementing. The universe of possibilities is so incredibly limited in these situations that it seems like a piece of cake, compared to city driving.
"Can you see that the track is clear of obstacles? If not, stop!"
They are, often on a huge scale. The DLR[1] in London is entirely automated (although sometimes the ticket inspector will sit at the front with the backup control panel open, presumably so they can pretend to drive a train), and the Central, Northern, and Jubilee lines also run semi-automated, and I'm pretty sure the bits that aren't automated are due to union lobbying rather than any particular need.
