It's based mostly on a recent paper in nature that estimates "that EV batteries in 2014 cost between $310 and $400 per kwh", but anticipates "It’s now in the realm of possibility that we’ll see $100 / kwh lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles by 2020, with some speculating that Tesla’s ‘gigafactory’ will push into sufficient scale to achieve that."
His numbers roughly agree with yours:
So we’d estimate that at the following battery prices we’d
get the following effective LCOEs (Levelized Cost of Electricity):
- $300 / kwh battery : 33 cent / kwh electricity storage
- $200 / kwh battery : 22 cent / kwh electricity storage
- $150 / kwh battery : 17 cent / kwh electricity storage
- $100 / kwh battery : 11 cent / kwh electricity storage
All of those battery costs, by the way, are functions of
what the ultimate buyer pays, including installation and maintenance.
It's based mostly on a recent paper in nature that estimates "that EV batteries in 2014 cost between $310 and $400 per kwh", but anticipates "It’s now in the realm of possibility that we’ll see $100 / kwh lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles by 2020, with some speculating that Tesla’s ‘gigafactory’ will push into sufficient scale to achieve that."
His numbers roughly agree with yours: